July rise in Covid-19 cases in England has ‘levelled off’ again, data shows
England’s Covid outbreak ISN’T spiralling out of control: ONS now estimates 3,800 people are getting infected each day – up from last week’s claim of 3,700 (and one in 1,900 are currently infected)
- Prevalence of the coronavirus in England is mostly unchanged since last week, official statistics show
- Office for National Statistics report estimates 0.05 per cent of population are currently infected with Covid-19
- Official daily cases are rising but this is likely because testing is better targeted and finding cases well
By Sam Blanchard Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline
Published: 07:38 EDT, 14 August 2020 | Updated: 09:16 EDT, 14 August 2020
England’s coronavirus outbreak is not spiralling out of control and has stabilised again after a rise in July – with one in every 1,900 people now carrying the virus, according to official data.
Fears of a second wave of Covid-19 led to tough local lockdowns across the North of England and prompted Boris Johnson to ‘squeeze the brakes’ on easing rules at the end of July.
But today’s weekly estimates – made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – are mostly the same as last week, except for a slight rise in the estimated daily new cases.
Around 3,800 people are catching the virus each day in the community now, and there were an estimated 28,300 people infected at any one time in the first week of August. It suggests 0.05 per cent of the population of England currently has Covid-19.
The ONS said that while recent figures had suggested the percentage of individuals testing positive for Covid-19 in households in England had risen slightly in July, this trend now appears to have ‘levelled off’.
Official testing figures have been rising for a month, with more than 1,000 cases declared on three occasions in four days after going six weeks without recording a four-figure daily rise.
But experts say this is down to better testing which is finding cases more accurately thanks to increased efforts in virus hotspots and looser criteria on who can be tested. Tests still only appear to account for a quarter of the real number of new cases each day.
In Wales the report estimated that 1,500 people had coronavirus at any one time between August 3 and August 9 – one in every 2,100 people.
It comes as separate figures published today revealed outbreaks of coughs and chest infections – some of which are likely to be down to Covid-19 – are at their highest levels all year.
Office for National Statistics data shows that an estimated 0.05 per cent of people in England currently have coronavirus – one in ever 1,900. This is down from a slight rise in July and significantly lower than a peak at the start of the monitoring when more than 0.3 per cent were positive – one in every 333 people
The ONS report this week used results from 122,021 swab tests taken over six weeks, out of which 58 people tested positive for Covid-19.
People who have coronavirus and are in hospital or care homes are not included in the data.
Lifting lockdown on July 4 – Super Saturday – does not appear to have led to a spike in the numbers of people catching coronavirus, the ONS reports show.
There was a small rise in cases in July – the percentage of people testing positive rose to 0.07 per cent in the week ending July 26 – but this appears to have dropped again.
The percentage has remained below 0.1 per cent – one in every 1,000 people – since May 30, showing there have been no drastic increases.
‘There is evidence that the incidence rate for England has increased in the most recent weeks following a low point in June and appears to have now levelled off,’ the report said.
King’s College London say the UK is not at the beginning of a second coronavirus wave and cases have dipped to their lowest since the beginning of July
WORKPLACE COUGHS AT HIGHEST LEVEL ALL YEAR
Outbreaks of coughs and chest infections are at their highest levels all year, according to Public Health England figures published today.
The organisation’s weekly Covid-19 report shows there were 47 outbreaks of respiratory infections in workplaces in the week ending August 9.
The illnesses are not explicitly said to be Covid-19 but are characterised by the same symptoms – coughing and breathing problems.
August 9th’s figure is the highest for the whole of 2020 so far, with 152 recorded in the past month, up from 140 the month before.
Up until May 3 there had only been one outbreak reported all year – likely because most workplaces were closed during lockdown. But there were none recorded even before lockdown started.
Since that time there have been a total of 340 outbreaks recorded. Each outbreak consists of two or more people with the same symptoms.
Today’s update comes after researchers yesterday said there is no evidence that England is entering a second wave of coronavirus infections, and that it is in fact still coming to the end of the first wave.
A team of scientists at King’s College London, who run the Covid Symptom Tracker mobile app, said cases appear to have actually dipped to their lowest since the beginning of July.
The app estimates cases depending on users reporting their symptoms and positive test results.
It estimates 1,434 people are being infected per day in the UK, according to data in the two weeks up to August 8, which does not include care homes or hospitals.
This is down on the 1,626 daily new cases in the two weeks up to 1 August, and 2,110 in the two weeks up to 25 July.
Across July, the researchers were concerned that Covid-19 cases were possibly rising, or were barely dropping below 2,000 new daily cases.
But now they are at last falling to levels recorded before pubs, restaurants, hairdressers and other venues re-opened on ‘Super Saturday’ – July 4.
In contrast, the government tally shows new cases, confirmed with a lab test, are on the rise. More than 1,000 Britons tested positive for coronavirus yesterday after record low cases in July.
And there are concerns spikes abroad in holiday destinations Spain, France and Greece will soon hit Britain.
In light of increasing cases, scientists have said we must learn to live with Covid-19 and that small surges in cases are to be expected.
The COVID-19 Symptom Study app has now been downloaded by over 3.9million people in the UK who regularly update information about if they have symptoms of have had a Covid-19 test.
The latest figures were based on the data from 10,988 swab tests done between 26 July to 8 August. They estimate that 24,131 people currently have symptomatic Covid-19 in the UK.
It’s down on the 26,512 reported last week (up until August 1) and 29,174 on the week prior (up until July 25). But despite the positive signs, the team said the data suggests Covid-19 cases have ‘remained stable’ overall.
They are cautious to make firm conclusions that the outbreak is either growing or shrinking until they are certain.
