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Analysis: The Kamala Harris pick is a hit with voters so far

Harris right now is one of the most popular active politicians in the country. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that 39% have a positive rating of her compared to a 35% who have a negative view. She is currently the only candidate on either of the major tickets who have more voters saying they have a positive than negative view in this particular survey.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll mirrors a Fox News poll out earlier this week in which more voters gave Harris a favorable than unfavorable view.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll similarly indicates that Americans approve of Biden selecting Harris. In that poll, 54% of Americans approve of the Harris selection and 29% disapprove. Perhaps most importantly, Democrats overwhelmingly approve of the pick (by an 86% to 8% margin) as do independents (52% to 29%).
Likewise, 60% of voters are either enthusiastic or satisfied with Harris being Biden’s running mate in a CBS News/YouGov poll. More voters, or 36%, say they’re glad with the selection than say they wish it was somebody else at 23%.

If Biden was looking to satisfy the Democratic base as well as not alienate the center of the electorate, he seems to have done so for now.

Now, I should note that it’s not unusual for a vice presidential pick to be well liked at first. In fact, more Americans have at least initially approved than disapproved of every vice presidential pick that the ABC News/Washington Post poll has tested since 1996.

Sometimes that doesn’t necessarily translate to voters still liking that pick once the convention rolls around. Sarah Palin was well liked in initial reviews by voters in 2008. A clear plurality of voters disliked her by Election Day in NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling, however.

Harris, though, is unique from most vice presidential selections in a key aspect: She’s really well known.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that just 26% of voters cannot form an opinion of her. To put that into some context, just look at the 2016 numbers at this general point in the campaign. Double the percentage of voters (i.e. over 50%) could not form an opinion of either the Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine or the Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence.

In fact, dating back to 1992, no other vice presidential nominee, who wasn’t already vice president, had as many voters who could form an opinion of her or him at this early stage than already have an opinion of Harris.

That could help Harris from having her numbers decline too much and be a drag on Biden.

Of course, we should differentiate between Harris being well-liked and boosting Biden. The polls we’ve seen over the last couple of days don’t show Biden is in a better position than he was before he picked Harris.

The CBS New/YouGov poll puts Biden ahead of Trump by a 52% to 42% margin among likely voters. That’s basically the same as it was in mid-July (51% for Biden to 41% for Trump).

Likewise, there hasn’t been any major movement in the polling averages either.

That, however, isn’t unusual after a vice president is selected. It’s the norm. Vice presidential picks rarely boost a ticket, but they can easily cause a distraction (see Palin in 2008). That’s especially the case if voters don’t think they are qualified to be president.

A majority of voters (54%) in the CBS News/YouGov poll say Harris is qualified to serve as president if necessary. A majority never felt that way about Palin.

Harris, for now, isn’t becoming the storyline of this election. As long as that continues to be the case, Biden will be able to keep the heat on Trump.

Put it all together, and Biden has to be happy with who he chose to be his running mate so far.

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