UK’s Covid cases fall for second day in a row: New infections drop 6% in a week to 178,250
UK’s Covid cases fall for SECOND day in a row: New infections drop 6% in week to 178,250 amid early signs England’s hospitalisations have peaked – as Sajid Javid says boosters cut risk of severe illness by 90% and top expert hints worst of pandemic is over
Two-day dip in cases puts end to nearly month of solid growth following emergence of ultra-infectious strainDaily hospital admissions up for UK as a whole but down for second day in a row in England in promising signSajid Javid reiterated how mild Omicron is to triple-vaccinated people in plea for more people to get boostedCambridge University prof said he could ‘guarantee’ UK not going to see ‘big surge in very severe outcomes’
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Britain’s daily coronavirus cases fell for the second day in a row today and there early signs NHS admissions are peaking in England — as Sajid Javid reiterated that Omicron is causing mild illness for the vast majority.
There were 178,250 new positive Covid tests across the UK over the past 24 hours, Government dashboard data shows, down 6 per cent on the figure last week — despite almost 2million tests being processed.
The two-day dip in new infections puts an end to nearly a month of solid growth following the emergence of the ultra-infectious new variant. There is now growing hope the UK’s outbreak will follow a similar trajectory to South Africa’s, where the Omicron crisis has completely collapsed in just six weeks.
Another 229 Covid fatalities were also registered across the country today, marking a 13 per cent rise compared to last Friday. There are around seven times fewer daily Covid deaths now than during the second wave last January.
Meanwhile, latest hospital data showed another 2,434 patients were admitted to UK hospitals with the virus on January 3, up by more than a quarter on the week before.
But it is not clear how many of the new admissions were primarily for Covid, and analysis of NHS stats suggests as many as 40 per cent are testing positive while in hospital for a different illness.
And even though Covid hospitalisations are rising in the UK as a whole, appear to be flatlining in England according to the most recent data. Daily admissions there were down 10 per cent in a week on January 5, the second day in a row they had fallen.
England’s admissions appear to be following the same trajectory as London’s, which is weeks ahead of the rest of the country and has seen hospital rates fall for the past five days.
The promising statistics come shortly after the Health Secretary reminded the nation that boosters cut the risk of severe Omicron illness by up to 90 per cent as he issued a plea to the remaining 10million eligible Britons who have not taken up the offer of a third dose.
But Mr Javid cautioned the NHS faces a ‘rocky’ few weeks as it wrestles with staff absences triggered by high infection rates and rising Covid admissions.
In another major boost, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, an eminent statistician at the University of Cambridge, suggested the worst of the pandemic was over.
He said: ‘The big severing is between really severe outcomes and that there’s still no sign of a serious increase in intensive care, and ventilation, and in deaths. We would have expected to see that by now in London and elsewhere – so that is the really reassuring thing.
‘I think we can guarantee that over this wave, as we endure the next few weeks, what we’re not going to see is a big surge in very severe outcomes.’
NHS figures released today show there were 13,045 beds occupied by coronavirus sufferers on January 4, of which 4,845 were not mainly sick with the disease. It means only six in 10 inpatients are primarily ill with Covid now compared to more than 80 per cent with Delta
Experts say there is reason to believe that incidentals will continue to rise as the variant pushes England’s infection rates to record highs, with one in 15 people estimated to have had Covid on New Year’s Eve
The share of so-called ‘incidental’ cases was even bigger in Omicron hotspot London , where 45 per cent of ‘Covid patients’ were not primarily in hospital for the virus
Pictured above is the % change in infection rates in England over the week to December 26 (left), and January 2 (right)
In other coronavirus developments:
Nearly four in ten Covid patients in hospitals in England are not primarily being treated for the virus, according to official data that highlights the mildness of Omicron;Up to one in five people in London‘s worst-hit boroughs may have had Covid on New Year’s Eve, surveillance data showed today — although infections were slowing in the capital overall;Covid deaths rose for the first time since in over a month last week in England and Wales, according to official figures that show early signs of Omicron‘s impact on fatalities; Washington University researchers said Omicron kills 99 per cent fewer people than Delta, as experts said the new variant is more akin to the flu; Mark Drakeford launched an astonishing tirade at Boris Johnson over Covid restrictions today as he vowed to ignore clear evidence that the worst of the Omicron wave has passed in order to keep tough restrictions in place in Wales;Thousands of women may not have got their Covid vaccine because they fear it will interact with their Botox, experts say.
Sir David said in December the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) warned that, if only Plan B measures were adhered to, hospital admissions would be likely to exceed 3,000 a day.
However, he said that, while daily cases are currently above 2,000, ‘with luck’ they may not go above 3,000, and the main change has been that people have ‘voluntarily been very cautious about their behaviour’.
Today’s daily figures show Britain is now averaging 180,076 cases per day, which is still more than twice as many as any other point in the pandemic before Omicron.
While admissions increased across the UK, figures for England show admissions have dropped 9.7 per cent in a week in the nation from 2,370 to 2,139 on January 5, the latest date data is available for.
In yet more proof the wave is receding in London, the city’s R rate dropped from between 1.2 and 1.6 on December 23 to 0.9 to 1.2 now according to the UK Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA) estimate today. The rate is above one in all other areas of the country
Cambridge University researchers, who are No10 scientific advisors, estimate that less than one per cent of under-75s who catch Covid die from the virus, with the fatality rate dropping for younger age groups. Over-75s are at most risk from the virus, with three per cent of those infected estimated to die from the virus
MailOnline analysis shows the UK’s case fatality rate — the proportion of confirmed infections that end in death — has shrunk 21-fold from three per cent during the darkest days of the second wave last winter before the vaccine rollout to 0.15 per cent at the end of December. For comparison, widely-circulated data suggests seasonal influenza has a case-fatality rate of around 0.1 per cent
The number of people in hospital with the virus is still increasing in the nation, increasing 30 per cent to 16,163 today.
But official NHS figures up to January 4 show just 62 per cent of those are patients being treated primarily for Covid.
And he share of so-called ‘incidental’ cases was even bigger in Omicron hotspot London, where 45 per cent of ‘Covid patients’ were not primarily in hospital for the virus.
MailOnline’s analysis shows the region with the highest incidental hospital patient was the Midlands, where 45 per cent of Covid patients were not being treated primarily for the virus on January 4.
It was followed by London (38 per cent), the East of England (38 per cent) and the North West (63 per cent).
The largest week-on-week growth in all Covid patients was in the North East and Yorkshire, which saw them rise 93 per cent from 1,014 to 1,961.
Of those, 1,265 (64 per cent) were being treated primarily for Covid — the third highest proportion in the country.
Professor Spiegelhalter told MailOnline that the rise in incidental cases ‘reflected the huge number of infections’ at the moment.
He added: ‘The rise in the share of incidental Covid patients could be largely due to the increased rate of people catching Covid while in hospital.
‘But we have good evidence from other sources that, compared to Delta, Omicron tends to produce milder disease — although it can still affect some people badly.’
Meanwhile, on a visit to King’s College Hospital London, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said he wanted to thank NHS workers across the country for ‘the amazing work they’ve been doing throughout this pandemic but particularly during these current challenging times’.
But Mr Javid also warned hospital admissions were rising and that the NHS was facing a ‘rocky few weeks ahead’.
He said: ‘We are in a stronger position than we were last year thanks to the vaccinations and the testing, we have boosted more people in this country than in any other country in Europe, we’ve got more antivirals per head than any other country in Europe, we’re testing more people per head than any other country in Europe.’
He added: ‘The best thing anyone can do if they haven’t already is get boosted or get your first or second jab if you haven’t had one.’
During the visit he said the intensive care unit for Covid patients had an estimated 70 per cent of patients unvaccinated and that this was a ‘reminder to us all’ of the importance of vaccination.
On a visit to King’s College Hospital London, Mr Javid said he wanted to thank NHS workers across the country for ‘the amazing work they’ve been doing throughout this pandemic but particularly during these current challenging times’.
But Mr Javid also warned hospital admissions were rising and that the NHS was facing a ‘rocky few weeks ahead’.
The Oxford University team behind Our World in Data estimates that the UK’s IFR rate is currently 0.1 per cent. At the peak of the wave last winter, they estimated three per cent of those who caught Covid died from the virus. The declining IFR will be impacted by the increase in testing capacity this year, as comparatively more cases are now being detected
