Greenhouse gas emissions need to peak BEFORE 2025 to limit global warming to 2.7°F, UN warns

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To hit the ambitious target of limiting global warming to 2.7°F (1.5°C), global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak before 2025 at the latest, a new UN report has warned.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report claims that there is a ‘brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity’ to limit warming by 2100.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must be slashed by a whopping 48 per cent by 2030 and hit net zero by 2050 if we’re to hit the target, according to the report.

Meanwhile, methane emissions must be reduced by a third by 2030, and almost halved by 2050.

As it stands, we are currently on track for global warming of 5.7°F (3.2°C) by 2100, with devastating consequences for ‘all living things’, according to the IPCC.

‘We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,’ said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. 

‘I am encouraged by climate action being taken in many countries. There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective. If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.’ 

UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres described the  report as a ‘file of shame’. 

‘The jury has reached a verdict and it is damning,’ he said.

‘This report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a litany of broken climate promises.

‘It is a file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track towards an unlivable world.

‘We are on a fast track to climate disaster: Major cities under water, unprecedented heatwaves, terrifying storms, widespread water shortages, the extinction of a million species of plants and animals.

‘This is not fiction or exaggeration. It is what science tells us will result from our current energy policies.’

The report found that while emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes temporarily dropped during the Covid-19 pandemic, they rebounded to record highs by the end of 2020.

Unsurprisingly, the world’s richest countries were found to be disproportionately high emitters.

Despite having just 22 per cent of the world’s population in 2019, North America, Europe, Australia, Japan and New Zealand were responsible for 43 per cent of CO2 emissions.

In contrast, Africa and Southern Asia – who together had 61 per cent of the global population in 2019 – only contributed 11 per cent.

The report isn’t all doom and gloom – it highlights the important work that’s already being done to reduce emissions, including a ‘revolution in renewables’.

It found that from 2010-2019, there have been significant decreases in the unit costs of solar energy (85 per cent), wind energy (55 per cent) and lithium-ion batteries (85 per cent).

This has led to a huge increase in their use, with solar energy alone increasing 10 times from 2010 to 2019.

However, it highlights that governments need to put a stronger emphasis on rapid, short-term action to limit global warming.

‘Limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot requires immediate, deep, rapid GHG emissions reductions across all sectors,’ the report said.

‘Substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use across the full energy sector, the deployment of low-emissions energy sources, switching to alternative energy carriers, and energy efficiency and conservation is central to achieving this.’

To achieve net zero CO2 emissions, the energy system will need to be almost entirely electrified, according to the report.

‘Some minimal use of fossil fuels may remain in hard to abate sectors, coupled with [carbon capture and storage], making net zero CO2 emissions possible – if challenging – across all sectors.’

In terms of quick policy wins, the report suggests a range of options that governments could implement immediately.

‘Solar energy, wind energy, electrification of urban systems, greening in cities, energy efficiency, demand side management, improved forest and crop/grassland management, and reduced food waste and loss, are all supported by the public, technically viable and increasingly cost-effective,’ it advised. 

Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist Dr Doug Parr said: ‘The message from the world’s top scientists is clear. If we want to stop our descent into climate hell we need to urgently tackle our addiction to industrial meat and fossil fuels.

‘Fossil fuels are driving the climate crisis, funding Vladimir Putin’s war and other conflicts around the world as well as clobbering UK households with rocketing bills. 

‘Meanwhile, the industrial food system is taking up vast amounts of land to feed factory farms instead of people, destroying climate-critical forests like the Amazon and threatening Indigenous People.

‘This IPCC report is clear on what the solution is: cut meat consumption, cut energy waste, dramatically cut fossil fuel use and turbocharge homegrown renewables and clean transport.’  

The report emphasises the benefit of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, including through activities such as planting trees and new technology.

‘The largest share of land-based carbon removal comes from reduced deforestation, protecting and restoring natural ecosystems including forests, peatlands, coastal wetlands, savannas and grasslands,’ the report said.

‘Improved and sustainable crop and livestock management can also play a part.’

However, experts have warned that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new strategies on energy and food are ‘on a collision course’ with the report’s advice. 

Today, Johnson announced that he is shelving plans to double or even treble the number of wind turbines in the countryside and approve plans for up to seven new nuclear reactors instead.

The Prime Minister is said to have rejected ambitious targets presented by Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng to double the UK’s onshore output to 30GW by 2030.

Instead, Tory opposition in the party’s shire England heartlands and within the Cabinet means that new atomic power sites in rural areas are likely to get Government backing.

The decommissioned power station at Wylfa, on Anglesey, has been suggested as a possible location for the first of a series of small reactor plants. 

Mr Johnson is expected to finally unveil his much-delayed new energy strategy on Thursday without any hard targets for onshore wind. But it is expected to lift a moratorium in place since 2015 to allow them to be built were there is local support.

It came after Transport Secretary Grant Shapps publicly opposed new wind farms yesterday in favour of new nuclear sites.  

‘The government energy plan is set to double down on fossil fuels, bet heavily on expensive and slow-to-build nuclear, and ignore our energy-wasting homes, while its food strategy may not even mention meat reduction,’ Mr Parr said.

‘The solutions to the climate crisis come with many other benefits – affordable bills, energy security, more land to grow healthy, nutritious food and restore nature. 

‘But we’re only going to reap them if our government gets it right.’    

Professor Tim Lenton, Director of the Global Systems Institute, added that the only way we can achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 2.7°F (1.5°C) is to find and trigger ‘positive tipping points’.    

‘To bend the curve of emissions and achieve such a fast reduction requires a spectacular acceleration of current progress,’ he said.

‘The only way we can achieve that now is to find and trigger ‘positive tipping points’ across all major sectors of the economy.

‘Happily, we see examples of such positive tipping points starting to unfold faster than anyone predicted, and the new report points to some of these.’