Coronavirus: England’s Covid-19 outbreak was flat in the week before lockdown

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The number of people catching coronavirus each day rose slightly in England in the week before lockdown, official figures show – but they have now remained flat for three weeks.

A weekly report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that 47,700 people caught the virus each day in the week ending November 6.

This was a four per cent nudge up from the 45,700 per day estimated during half term the week before, but experts at the ONS said in the report: ‘The incidence rate has increased in recent weeks, and remains at about 50,000 new cases per day.’

The daily infections figure breached the 50,000 mark for the first time in the week ending October 23 and have hovered at a similar level ever since then, suggesting that the outbreak has levelled off in England and Wales. 

Because of the sustained level of transmission the total number of people infected at any one time – now thought to be 654,000 up from 618,700 a week earlier – has continued to increase.

But, the ONS added ‘the rate of increase is slower than previous weeks’. Today’s update adds to a raft of statistics showing that the outbreak in England had already started to come under control before the second lockdown began.

The Government-commissioned REACT-1 mass testing study yesterday published its most recent results for November and admitted the outbreak had not grown as fast as expected and there was ‘maybe a plateau’, but it claimed there were still 100,000 people getting infected each day.

Scientists on the Covid Symptom Study yesterday estimated the R rate for the entire UK to be at an average of 0.9, meaning every 10 people with coronavirus now only infect nine others and the outbreak is gradually shrinking. 

And NHS data shows that the number of people in hospital in Liverpool – one of the worst hit parts of the country for much of the second wave – fell 15 per cent in the week leading up to the second lockdown.

Today’s ONS report showed that approximately 1.2 per cent of the population in England had coronavirus during the week that ended November 6, equating to one in every 85 people. 

This was a jump from the 1.13 per cent that was recorded in the last week of October, which was half term for large parts of England. 

North West England and Yorkshire and the Humber remain the regions with the highest infection rate, with 2.2 per cent of the population there carrying the coronavirus – one in every 45 people. 

This was followed by 1.5 per cent in the North East, 1.4 per cent in the East Midlands and 1.3 per cent in the West Midlands.

London and the South West (0.8 per cent), the South East (0.7 per cent) and East of England (0.5 per cent) all had rates lower than the national average. 

Tougher restrictions in the North, however, mean infection rates actually appeared to be levelling off there while they were still rising in the less badly affected South, the ONS acknowledged. 

When modelling the level of infection among different age groups, the ONS said secondary school children, older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest rates of infection.

But rates are now decreasing in older teenagers and young adults, and appear to have levelled off among younger children, teenagers and those aged 25 to 34 years, it added.

Positivity rates continue to increase in people aged 35 years and over, and are now above 1 per cent among those aged 35 to 49 and 50 to 69 years, the ONS said.

These older age groups are the ones of greatest concern because over-40s are the ones most likely to get symptoms of Covid-19, to end up in hospital or, in some cases, to die.