Now India bans AstraZeneca exports in fresh blow to Britain’s supply chain woes

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Britain’s vaccine supply is heading into troubled waters as supplies of both Pfizer and AstraZeneca’s jabs are in danger of being strangled by foreign governments. 

India has banned exports of the AstraZeneca jab being made at the Serum Institute so it can use them for its own citizens, delaying a shipment of five million doses bound for the UK.

And EU officials are poised to stop shipments of Pfizer vaccines – which the UK needs to complete second doses for around 10million people by mid-June. 

Insiders say AstraZeneca’s supplies can be made entirely in the UK and the five million-dose boost from India was not critical to meeting government targets, meaning the delivery from India may be a disappointment rather than a crisis.

But all of the country’s Pfizer doses are made in factories in Europe – the firm and its partner BioNTech have major facilities in Belgium and Germany – and international shipping is vital to keeping this supply chain running. More than 12million doses have already been sent to Britain and we need at least the same number again by June.

Ministers have insisted that the UK is still on track to hit the vaccination targets on which it based its lockdown timetable but, at that time, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the supply problems were only likely to last for around a month.

Now there is a prospect of open-ended delays to the jabs with political tensions rising and other countries facing yet another increase in infections.

India is in the grip of a second wave and holding vaccines from the Serum Institute so it can immunise its own one billion citizens, and cases are surging again in parts of Western Europe, where the rollout has been less successful than in Britain.

The UK has already stopped giving out the Pfizer vaccine to first-time patients so it can prioritise all the supplies – which are now in danger of grinding to a halt – for existing patients’ second doses. 

Supplies of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Britain may be hurt by the export ban from India – five million had been expected in the coming weeks – but it should not be impacted by the EU’s actions.

Only a tiny proportion of the 14million AstraZeneca doses given out so far in the UK were made in Europe – a small batch of unknown size delivered at the very start of the rollout in December.

A second ad-hoc shipment has since arrived in Britain from a factory in the Netherlands – which likely triggered the current row with the European Commission – but these vaccines have not yet been used.

The size of the shipment has been kept secret by the Government and Halix, the firm that sent it, and the MHRA confirmed it has not yet approved the batch for use in Britain.

AstraZeneca claims it can make two million doses per week in the UK to supply exclusively to the NHS.

While the EU has demanded that some of these doses be sent to its own nations, this does not appear to have happened so far.

The UK Government’s vaccination targets and lockdown-ending plans are understood to be based on a rollout that keeps pace with domestic production, meaning imports from India or the Netherlands boost the programme but delays outside the country shouldn’t slow it down significantly.

Pfizer’s supply is a different story, however, and Britain is totally reliant on deliveries from Belgium and Germany.

At least 12million doses have already been used in the UK and it has a stockpile and incoming supply of second doses – half a million second doses were given out this week, with most of them Pfizer jabs.

In total 10.9million people have had Pfizer for their first vacccine – by March 7 – meaning they must all get another dose of it by June 7 at the latest.

Even if all the 2.8m second doses given in the UK so far were all Pfizer, the country still needs more than eight million extra doses to hit that target. And although some will already be in the country, they are used on a rolling basis so imports are needed. 

Neither Pfizer nor the UK Government have confirmed how fast the company is supplying the vaccine to Britain, nor what its target is for the end of March. 

Ministers have refused to confirm details of the UK’s vaccine supplies out of fear of causing outrage among other nations that don’t have as many. As a result, the supply problems are largely playing out behind closed doors except for comments from foreign politicians. 

Although India confirmed it would control vaccine supplies to make sure its own citizens were provided for, a government source said it had not imposed any ban on vaccine exports ‘unlike many other countries,’ and that it would continue to supply doses in phases. 

‘We remain committed to help the world with vaccines, including through the COVAX facility,’ the source told Reuters.

However, a health ministry source told The Times: ‘Other countries will get supplies only if there are vaccines left over after keeping enough for our own population.’  

Deliveries will be delayed in March and April ‘as the government of India battles a new wave of Covid-19 infections,’ said GAVI, an alliance of countries, companies and charities that promote vaccination.

This disruption, which has led to Britain having to deal without a delivery of five million doses it planned to receive from India next month, was the original reason behind the slowdown expected from next week.

In a letter to vaccine clinics, hospitals and GPs last week, NHS chiefs said: ‘The Government’s Vaccines Task Force have now notified us that there will be a significant reduction in weekly supply available from manufacturers beginning in the week commencing 29 March, meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly constrained.

‘They now currently predict this will continue for a four-week period, as a result of reductions in national inbound vaccines supply.’

The letter adds that inviting people for jabs who are not in the top nine priority groups is ‘only permissible in exceptional circumstances’.

But a new, potentially more troubling development, has unfolded since then as the European Union has threatened to cap exports of jabs from factories on its land.

The UK has been importing millions of doses of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine from their factories in Belgium and Germany and has around 10million people who need a second dose of the jab by mid-June.

French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian took a swipe at the British strategy today and said: ‘The United Kingdom has taken great pride in vaccinating well with the first dose except they have a problem with the second dose.

‘You are vaccinated when you have had both doses. Today there are as many people vaccinated with both in France as the United Kingdom…

‘You can’t be playing like this, a bit of blackmail, just because you hurried to get people vaccinated with a first shot, and now you’re a bit handicapped because you don’t have the second one.’