‘Professor Lockdown’ says he expects Chris Whitty to approve Covid vaccines for 12 to 15-year-olds

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‘Professor Lockdown‘ Neil Ferguson revealed today he expects Britain to press ahead with vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds against Covid. 

The epidemiologist, whose frightening modelling prompted the initial shutdown last March, said he ‘expects’ the UK’s chief medical officers to approve the plans.

On Friday, the Government’s vaccine advisory panel said it would not recommend jabs for healthy teens because Covid poses such a low threat to their health.

It has left the decision with Chris Whitty and the CMOs across the devolved nations to decide whether there are wider societal benefits.

MailOnline understands a decision is expected on Friday.

Professor Ferguson said today: ‘Vaccinating that age group would drive down transmission in that population.

‘So on balance I think we will probably move to vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds.

‘It would not surprise me if the chief medical officers decide to go forward with vaccination.’

The Government has made no secret of the fact it wants to immunise children after seeing cases spiral in Scotland when schools returned from summer last month.

There is now an ongoing row about whether children as young as 12 should be given the choice to overrule their parents’ decision.

A British Medical Association chief claimed some 12-year-olds have ‘enough maturity’ to weigh up the pros and cons themselves.

But clinicians have said they are ‘reluctant’ to give children jabs without parental consent.

Those in favour of vaccinating children say it would help to head off a surge in infections later this winter when the NHS is under the greatest pressure.

But others have argued it would be ethically dubious to inoculate the age group when millions of people in poorer countries are still waiting to be vaccinated.

Dr David Strain, co-chair of the BMA Medical Academics, claimed youngsters aged 12 to 15 were capable of weighing up the benefits of vaccination against the small risk of serious side effects.

He claimed they should be able to overrule their parents’ wishes and get the injection if officials sign off on the plans this week. 

But Dr Strain admitted that rolling out doses to the age group would only cut transmission by 20 per cent 

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said yesterday that children would be able to get the vaccine against their parents’ wishes if it is made available for the age group.   

Dr Strain, who is also clinical lead for Covid services at the Royal Devon & Exeter NHS Foundation Trust, told LBC Radio: ‘A lot of children aged 12 have enough maturity in order to make a decision themselves, although it’s not the same for every child.

‘Doctors and nurses are trained to be able to evaluate them and deem them competent.’

‘Vaccinating children will reduce the spread of the virus in the population by about 20 per cent.’

Speaking about his own family, he said: ‘My 16-year-old has already had the vaccine; our 12-year-old, who’s actually starting school tomorrow, will be desperately keen to get the vaccine.

‘We have weighed up the evidence and fully accept there is this very small risk of myocarditis after the first jab, but actually the risk of myocarditis after getting Covid is about the same, if not slightly higher.

‘These are the factors, so I would have no hesitation at all to allow my children to have the vaccine.’

Professor Whitty is under mounting political pressure to approve jabs for 12 to 15-year-olds in England.

Downing Street fears that while daily cases never hit the prediction of 100,000 cases a day over the summer, they could spiral to these levels during the winter months if kids aren’t given vaccines. 

This would leave the country fighting a new Covid wave at the same time as a flu outbreak, putting further pressure on the NHS. 

But in its ruling on Friday, the JCVI said giving Covid vaccines to children would only have ‘marginal’ benefits to their health.

It said that the benefits did not yet outweigh the risk of potential side effects – namely heart inflammation. 

Professor Anthony Harnden, the deputy chairman of the JCVI, this morning acknowledged that the group was in the ‘uncomfortable’ position of disagreeing with the Government. 

He told Good Morning Britain: ‘It is very finely balanced. It’s marginally in favour, actually if you look at all the figures — and we have published those — in favour of vaccination.

‘But I do understand it from a parental viewpoint and I understand it from a teenager’s viewpoint.

‘This is not an easy decision. And, to a certain extent, by us coming out and saying no, if the Government say yes that does create a lot of uncomfortableness, and I fully understand that.’

He said they want to provide the data for everyone to look at and, should the chief medical officers decide healthy children in this age group should be offered a jab, they are ‘giving choice’.

He added: ‘It is up to then parents and teenagers to decide whether they go ahead or not. There isn’t a right or wrong answer to this.’

Mr Zahawi told Times Radio yesterday that children would be able to overrule their parents to get the vaccine, should the jab be recommended for the age group. 

He said: ‘What you essentially do is make sure that the clinicians discuss this with the parents, with the teenager, and if they are then deemed to be able to make a decision that is competent, then that decision will go in the favour of what the teenager decides to do.’

Mr Zahawi added that if jabbing 12 to 15-year-olds was recommended by Britain’s medical officers it was ‘absolutely’ the right thing to do.

He said that parents would be asked for consent if jabs were approved for the age group.

Medics have warned, however, that clinicians will be ‘reluctant’ to give jabs to children without their parents’ consent.

The associate professor of family law at Oxford University, Lucinda Ferguson, told The Telegraph: ‘In my view the clinician may well be reluctant to accept that because alongside that, you have now got the JCVI saying that they don’t consider it to be essentially in the medical best interests of children more generally.

She added: ‘At least at this stage wold be reluctant to accept that that consent (from a child) is good enough because of course if you treat a child without informed consent, either from them, or from a parent with parental responsibility, it is technically battery and that would be what would be concerning the clinician.’

Several SAGE members have already said they are in favour of vaccinating the age group to head off a surge in cases later this year. 

Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the powerful committee, said on Saturday: ‘In the UK now it’s difficult to say how many children have not been infected but it is probably around half of them.

‘That’s a long way to go if we allow the infection just to run through the population, that’s a lot of children who will be infected that will be a lot of disruption to schools in the coming months.’

SAGE adviser Professor Peter Openshaw also backed vaccinating the age group yesterday to head off a surge in infections. 

He told BBC Breakfast: ‘We do know the virus is circulating very widely amongst this age group, and that if we’re going to be able to get the rates down and also prevent further surges of infection perhaps later in the winter, then this is the group that needs to become immune.

‘And the best way to become immune is through vaccination, and there’s never been as much information as this in the past.’ 

He added: ‘To my mind, the public health benefit is very, very important, and we have to take the wider view that unless we do get infection rates down amongst this particular part of the population, it will be very, very hard to prevent further large recurrences (of Covid).’