Opinion: Is Biden’s presidency doomed?

The fate of the Build Back Better legislation remains precarious, while the President’s emboldened words about the Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act were tougher than ever. On Tuesday, he asked elected officials, “Do you want to be on the side of Dr. King or George Wallace?” in what appeared to be a question implicitly targeting Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who still refuse to accept the filibuster carve-out that would allow the voting rights legislation to overcome Republican opposition. Even worse, Omicron has driven up hospitalizations and left huge swaths of the population despondent about when the pandemic will come to an end. “It’s déjà vu all over again,” as the baseball legend Yogi Berra liked to say.

Others complain that the President isn’t even doing a good job showcasing his many accomplishments. “Jobs, jabs, infrastructure, prosperity and peace,” one columnist urged in a piece criticizing Biden for failing to boast enough about what his administration has done.

Then there is inflation. Rising prices are overwhelming all good economic news in recent days, including low unemployment and a buoyant economy. Although initially many economists thought that the price increases would be “transitory,” the widely accepted outlook is that inflation will remain high for a while. One Nevada voter, Laura Godinez, who told CNN she used to lean Republican but had shifted toward the Democrats in recent elections, commented: “I don’t want to say this, but when Donald Trump was here, it was nothing like this.”

Those who are worried should find some solace in the fact that contemporary presidents have been able to come back from difficult moments like these. Challenging first terms don’t inevitably put a commander in chief on path toward a one-term presidency. It’s possible to struggle in the polls, deal with difficult economic challenges and criticism from different factions of one’s own party and still go on to be considered a successful two-term president.

Reagan’s approval ratings fell to 46%, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll in May 1982. (While that was higher than Biden’s current ratings, it was low compared to Lyndon B. Johnson at a similar moment in his presidency (67%) or Richard Nixon (66%).

But conditions started to change dramatically in 1983 and 1984. As the economy rebounded, so too did Reagan’s standing. The president finally found his footing, figuring out a way to identify himself with the nation’s economic recovery and to calm the nerves of conservatives who wanted him to go much further on issues such as limiting reproductive rights.

He found a way. As a result of the government shutdowns in 1995 and 1996, support for the administration started to rise, as voters blamed House Speaker Newt Gingrich and his fellow Republicans for the dysfunction in Washington.

The president’s tough stand following the Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995 generated widespread praise. Following the advice of strategist Dick Morris, Clinton shifted to the center on a number of issues, including welfare reform, stealing thunder from Republicans. And the economy started to grow.

And, certainly, Biden remembers the experience of President Barack Obama, under whom he served. Obama took over under terrible circumstances, and his first few years were anything but fun. He started his term with the nation still reeling from the implosion of financial markets in 2008. American troops were also bogged down in an unsuccessful and unpopular war in Iraq.

As with Clinton, many on the left were unhappy. They thought that Obama was moving too far to the center. As with Biden, there were also concerns that the president was not doing enough to tout his accomplishments, including a major economic stimulus bill that helped put the nation on the right path.

But Obama also recovered and thrived. Americans began to feel the effects of the economic rebound, and the president found his political footing during standoffs with Tea Party Republicans who were pushing the GOP toward new extremes, such as when they threatened to send the nation into default by not raising the debt ceiling.

While Biden’s current challenges are very real, they shouldn’t be seen as a clear indication of where his presidency is headed. This challenging moment is a snapshot of his term rather than the conclusion. In modern times, we have seen many presidents recover from a difficult start. Not everyone ends up like Carter, H.W. Bush or Trump, one-term presidents who campaigned for reelection under poor conditions (Carter was dealing with the Iran-Hostage crisis and stagflation; H.W. Bush with the recession; Trump with the pandemic and ongoing political turmoil). It’s possible that Biden’s troubles will fade, and he and the nation will eventually look back on a successful two-term administration.