Putin’s clumsy military campaign makes little sense
Odessa, Ukraine CNN —
Each morning I hope it will be easier to process. But nearly a fortnight into this war, the conflict still seems surreally distant and alarmingly beyond comprehension.
Try to ask yourself “how is this happening?” and you lurch out over an abyss so profound it is beyond the reach of your senses.
And even if Putin does think he can get his old empire back, how do these 13 days of savagery make that happen?
The slow and clumsy Russian campaign for the south has been the most baffling. It is clear what Moscow wants: To cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea.
What is hard to fathom is whether the Kremlin’s plan to get it has collapsed, and Russian troops are just throwing rockets and tanks at anything they can, or whether this sort of total war against Ukrainians was always the plan.
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Members of the Red Cross help people fleeing the Kyiv suburb of Irpin, Ukraine, on March 7.
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Civilians receive weapons training on the outskirts of Lviv, western Ukraine, on March 7.
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Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-declared separatist region in Donetsk, attends a memorial service on March 7.
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Alexandra, 12, holds her 6-year-old sister Esyea, who cries as she waves at her mother Irina, as they leave Odessa, Ukraine, on March 7.
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Residential buildings damaged by recent shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 7.
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A woman cries as she hears shelling Sunday, March 6, after evacuating the Ukrainian village of Stoyanka.
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Civilians seek protection in a basement bomb shelter in Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 6.
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Local residents evacuate Irpin as Russian forces continued to bombard the town with artillery on March 6.
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A Ukrainian serviceman watches a civilian cross a blown-up bridge in a Ukrainian village east of the town of Brovary on March 6.
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Valery and Lesya, members of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces, get married on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 6.
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George Keburia says goodbye to his wife and children as they board a train in Odessa, Ukraine, on Saturday, March 5. They were heading to Lviv.
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Local residents help clear the rubble of a home that was destroyed by a suspected Russian airstrike in Markhalivka, Ukraine, on March 5.
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Ukrainian civilians undergo basic military training at a volunteer center in Odessa on March 5.
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Ukrainian refugees are seen through a bus window as they arrive at a temporary accommodation center in Korczowa, Poland, on March 5.
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Ukrainian soldiers react to the sound of an incoming missile at the Irpin River, on the outskirts of Kyiv, on March 5.
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Ukrainians crowd under a destroyed bridge as they try to flee across the Irpin River, on the outskirts of Kyiv, on March 5.
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People remove personal belongings from a burning house after shelling in Irpin on March 4.
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People take shelter on the floor of a hospital during shelling in Mariupol on March 4.
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People crowd on a platform as they try to board a westbound train in Kyiv on March 4.
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A bullet-ridden bus is seen after an ambush in Kyiv on March 4.
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A member of the Ukrainian military gives instructions to civilians in Irpin on March 4. They were about to board an evacuation train headed to Kyiv.
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A Ukrainian child rests on a bed at a temporary refugee center in Záhony, Hungary, on March 4.
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Ukrainian servicemen take cover from shelling in the city of Bucha, west of Kyiv, on March 4.
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A man says goodbye to his wife and son at a train station in Kyiv on Thursday, March 3.
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A Ukrainian soldier carries a baby across a destroyed bridge on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 3.
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Destroyed Russian military vehicles are seen on a street in Borodyanka on March 3.
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A Ukrainian soldier who says he was shot three times in the opening days of the invasion sits on a hospital bed in Kyiv on March 3.
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Residents react in front of a burning building after shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 3.
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People form a human chain to transfer supplies into Kyiv on March 3.
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A cemetery worker digs graves for Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv on March 3.
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Ukrainian soldiers unload weapons from the trunk of a car northeast of Kyiv on March 3.
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A mother cares for her two infant sons in the underground shelter of a maternity hospital in Kyiv on March 3. She gave birth a day earlier, and she and her husband haven’t yet decided on names for the twins.
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A member of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces sits with a weapon in Kyiv on Wednesday, March 2.
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Paramedics treat an elderly woman wounded by shelling before transferring her to a hospital in Mariupol on March 2.
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Residents of Zhytomyr, Ukraine, work in the remains of a residential building on March 2. The building was destroyed by shelling.
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Displaced Ukrainians take shelter in an auditorium in Lviv on March 2.
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A woman cries March 2 in the street of a neighborhood that was damaged by airstrikes in Gorenka, Ukraine.
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A member of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces inspects damage in the backyard of a house in Gorenka on March 2.
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A Ukrainian woman takes her children over the border in Siret, Romania, on March 2. Many Ukrainians are fleeing the country at a pace that could turn into “Europe’s largest refugee crisis this century,” the United Nations Refugee Agency said.
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Andrey Goncharuk, a 68-year-old member of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces, clutches a hunting rifle March 2 while coming out of a small basement of a Gorenka house crowded with people seeking shelter from Russian airstrikes and shelling.
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Militia members set up anti-tank barricades in Kyiv on March 2.
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People wait at a train station in Kyiv on March 2.
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People shelter in a subway station in Kyiv on March 2.
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Ukrainian soldiers attend Mass at an Orthodox monastery in Kyiv on March 1.
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Medical workers show a mother her newborn after she gave birth at a maternity hospital in Mariupol on March 1. The hospital is now also used as a medical ward and bomb shelter.
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An administrative building is seen in Kharkiv after Russian shelling on March 1. Russian forces have scaled up their bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
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Ukrainian emergency workers carry a body of a victim following shelling that hit the City Hall building in Kharkiv on March 1.
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A woman named Helen comforts her 8-year-old daughter, Polina, in the bomb shelter of a Kyiv children’s hospital on March 1. The girl was at the hospital being treated for encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain.
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Ukrainian refugees try to stay warm at the Medyka border crossing in Poland on March 1.
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Passengers anxiously board trains in Kyiv before heading to destinations in the western part of the country on February 28.
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A bridge is destroyed near the town of Bucha on February 28.
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Volunteers in Kyiv sign up to join Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces on February 28.
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A member of the Territorial Defense Forces loads rifle magazines in Kyiv on February 28.
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Ukrainian forces order a man to the ground on February 28 as they increased security measures amid Russian attacks in Kyiv.
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Mothers tend to their babies in the bomb shelter of a children’s hospital in Kyiv on February 28.
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Ukrainian forces are seen inside a basement being used as a military base in Dnipro, Ukraine, on February 28.
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A displaced Ukrainian cradles her child at a temporary shelter set up inside a gymnasium in Beregsurány, Hungary, on February 28.
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Smoke billows over the Ukrainian city of Vasylkiv, just outside Kyiv on February 27. A fire at an oil storage area was seen raging at the Vasylkiv Air Base.
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A couple embraces at a railway station in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on February 27. The woman was about to board a train heading west.
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People wait on a platform inside the railway station in Lviv on February 27. Thousands of people at Lviv’s main train station attempted to board trains that would take them out of Ukraine.
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A Russian armored vehicle burns after fighting in Kharkiv on February 27. Street fighting broke out as Russian troops entered Ukraine’s second-largest city, and residents were urged to stay in shelters and not travel.
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Local residents prepare Molotov cocktails in Uzhhorod, Ukraine, on February 27.
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Cars line up on the road outside Mostyska, Ukraine, as people attempt to flee to Poland on February 27.
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Ukrainian troops in Kyiv escort a prisoner February 27 who they suspected of being a Russian agent.
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Ukrainian service members take position at the Vasylkiv Air Base near Kyiv on February 27.
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A woman sleeps on chairs February 27 in the underground parking lot of a Kyiv hotel that has been turned into a bomb shelter.
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Ukrainian service members take cover in a shelter at the Vasylkiv Air Base near Kyiv on February 26.
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A damaged residential building is seen in Kyiv on February 26.
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People in Kyiv run for cover during shelling on February 26.
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An apartment building in Kyiv is seen after it was damaged by shelling on February 26. The outer walls of several apartment units appeared to be blown out entirely, with the interiors blackened and debris hanging loose.
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A police vehicle patrols the streets of Kyiv on February 26.
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Ukrainian troops inspect a site following a Russian airstrike in Kyiv on February 26.
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Following a national directive to help complicate the invading Russian Army’s attempts to navigate, a road worker removes signs near Pisarivka, Ukraine, on February 26.
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Members of the Territorial Defense Force — Ukraine’s military reserve — prepare to defend Kyiv on February 26.
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Ukrainian service members collect unexploded shells after fighting with advancing Russian troops in Kyiv early on February 26.
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Ukrainian service members look for and collect unexploded shells after fighting in Kyiv on February 26.
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Office of the President of Ukraine
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The body of a Russian soldier lies next to a Russian vehicle outside Kharkiv on February 25.
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A woman weeps in her car after crossing the border from Ukraine into Sighetu Marmatiei, Romania, on February 25.
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A Ukrainian soldier sits injured from crossfire inside Kyiv on February 25.
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A child from Ukraine sleeps in a tent at a humanitarian center in Palanca, Moldova, on February 25.
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A firefighter walks between the ruins of a downed aircraft in Kyiv on February 25.
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Members of the Ukrainian National Guard take positions in central Kyiv on February 25.
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People walk past a residential building in Kyiv that was hit in an alleged Russian airstrike on February 25.
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The body of a school employee, who according to locals was killed in recent shelling, lies in the separatist-controlled town of Horlivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on February 25.
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Kyiv residents take shelter in an underground parking garage on February 25.
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A wounded woman stands outside a hospital after an attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Chuhuiv, outside of Kharkiv, on February 24.
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The body of a rocket remains in an apartment after shelling on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv on February 24.
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A boy plays with his tablet in a public basement used as a bomb shelter in Kyiv on February 24.
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A man mourns after an airstrike reportedly hit an apartment complex in Chuhuiv on February 24.
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Rescuers work at a crash site on February 24 after a Ukrainian military plane fell and caught fire outside of Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian State Emergency Service. The cause of the crash wasn’t indicated.
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Ukrainian service members sit atop armored vehicles driving in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region on February 24.
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People in Kyiv try to board a bus to travel west toward Poland on February 24.
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People seek shelter inside a subway station in Kharkiv on February 24.
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Firefighters attempt to extinguish a fire after a reported strike in Chuhuiv on February 24.
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People wait after boarding a bus to leave Kyiv on February 24.
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Police officers inspect the remains of a missile that landed in Kyiv on February 24.
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A staff member of a Kyiv hotel talks on the phone on February 24.
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People wait in line to buy train tickets at the central station in Kyiv on February 24.
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A photo provided by the Ukrainian President’s office appears to show an explosion in Kyiv early on February 24.
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A convoy of Russian military vehicles is seen February 23 in the Rostov region of Russia, which runs along Ukraine’s eastern border.
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Ukrainian soldiers talk in a shelter at the front line near Svitlodarsk, Ukraine, on February 23.
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Smoke rises from a damaged power plant in Shchastya that Ukrainian authorities say was hit by shelling on February 22.
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A damaged house is worked on after shelling near the Ukrainian front-line city of Novoluhanske on February 22.
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Ukrainian soldiers pay their respects during Sydorov’s funeral in Kyiv on February 22.
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Russian howitzers are loaded onto train cars near Taganrog, Russia, on February 22.
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Protesters demanding economic sanctions against Russia stand outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kyiv on February 21. Only a small number of protesters showed up to demonstrate.
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Activists hold a performance in front of the Russian embassy in Kyiv on February 21 in support of prisoners who were arrested in Crimea. They say the red doors are a symbol of the doors that were kicked in to search and arrest Crimean Tatars, a Muslim ethnic minority.
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Ukrainian servicemen shop in the front-line town of Avdiivka, Ukraine, on February 21.
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People lay flowers at the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on February 21.
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A local resident shows the depth of a crater from shelling in a field behind his house in the village of Tamarchuk, Ukraine, on February 20.
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Ukrainian service members are seen along the front line outside of Popasna, Ukraine, on February 20.
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People evacuated from the pro-Russian separatist regions of Ukraine are seen at a temporary shelter in Taganrog, Russia, on February 20.
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Anastasia Manha lulls her 2-month-old son Mykyta after alleged shelling by separatists forces in Novohnativka, Ukraine, on February 20.
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A Ukrainian soldier stays on position on the front line near Novohnativka on February 20.
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A couple arrives at the city council to get married in Odessa, Ukraine, on February 20. As Ukrainian authorities reported further ceasefire violations and top Western officials warned about an impending conflict, life went on in other parts of the country.
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A woman rests in a car near a border checkpoint in Avilo-Uspenka, Russia, on February 19.
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A Ukrainian service member walks by a building on February 19 that was hit by mortar fire in the front-line village of Krymske, Ukraine.
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Fighter jets fly over Belarus during a joint military exercise the country held with Russia on February 19.
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Ukrainian soldiers stand guard at a military command center in Novoluhanske on February 19.
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People sit on a bus in Donetsk on February 18 after they were ordered to evacuate to Russia by pro-Russian separatists.
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Children play on old Soviet tanks in front of the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on February 16.
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Ambassadors of European countries lay roses at the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv on February 16. The wall contains the names and photographs of military members who have died since the conflict with Russian-backed separatists began in 2014.
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US troops walk on the tarmac at the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in southeastern Poland on February 16. US paratroopers landed in Poland as part of a deployment of several thousand sent to bolster NATO’s eastern flank in response to tensions with Russia.
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A 200-meter-long Ukrainian flag is unfolded at the Olympic Stadium in Kyiv on February 16 to mark a “Day of Unity,” an impromptu celebration declared by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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A Ukrainian serviceman carries an anti-tank weapon during an exercise in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine on February 15.
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A woman and child walk underneath a military monument in Senkivka, Ukraine, on February 14. It’s on the outskirts of the Three Sisters border crossing between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.
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Ukrainian service members talk at a front-line position in eastern Ukraine on February 14.
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Members of Ukraine’s National Guard look out a window as they ride a bus through the capital of Kyiv on February 14.
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Satellite images taken on February 13 by Maxar Technologies revealed that dozens of helicopters had appeared at a previously vacant airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea.
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The Russian navy’s diesel-electric Kilo-class submarine, Rostov-on-Don, moves through Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait en route to the Black Sea on February 13.
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An anti-war demonstration takes place in Kyiv’s Independence Square on February 12.
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Pro-Russian separatists observe the movement of Ukrainian troops from trenches in Ukraine’s Donbas area on February 11.
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Ukrainian service members unpack Javelin anti-tank missiles that were delivered to Kyiv on February 10 as part of a US military support package for Ukraine.
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Ukrainian service members walk on an armored fighting vehicle during a training exercise in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region on February 10.
The city of Kherson was the first to “fall,” but that was not really what happened.
As we watched the fight for the strategic bridge to the city’s east, I tried to reassure locals that the Russian army had no interest in their homes and would drive on by, eager to get to Odessa, further west.
But I was wrong – again – about the extent of Moscow’s ambitions. (I have, since the first intelligence warnings about a full Russian invasion of Ukraine, felt the idea was so preposterous it must be born of an intelligence failure, not a historic intelligence success).
‘They shoot at anyone who tries to leave.’ Ukrainians describe terror of living under Russian occupation
Russian troops did enter the city of Kherson, where they were reported to have looted shops, arrested men, and shot in the air at protestors. The residents here call them “Orcs” – the lumbering monsters from the Lord of the Rings.
It is a marvel that Moscow was either so convinced civil disobedience would not be a problem or decided that they simply did not need a plan to deal with it. The Kremlin’s attempt to film Russian aid trucks handing out the solution to the problem its invasion created was greeted with local scorn and profanity. The protests go on.
The port of Mykolaiv is next on the Russian route to Odessa, Ukraine’s third-largest city. The Russian “plan” for Mykolaiv is even more disconcertingly opaque. Shelling is a big part of it; over a week they have hit civilian targets there multiple times.
Last weekend, when their missiles blew out the windows and roofs of civilian buildings as a consequence of a strike on Ukrainian armor in the city center, that may have been by accident.
But this weekend – even at the most generous assessment – it was through carelessness so extreme it was surely criminal. They seem to just be lobbing rockets, into the city’s suburbs, CNN seeing three instances where apparent cluster munitions had landed in residential areas. NATO on Friday said it had seen the use of cluster bombs by Russia in Ukraine.
And again and again on Mykolaiv’s outskirts, the Russians keep coming. The attacks seem to falter every time. At one roundabout, we saw a Russian Tigr armored vehicle on fire on Saturday, Ukrainian troops lying in defensive prone positions around it.
Some 24 hours later, at the same spot, Ukrainian troops had found time to graffiti the unexploded rockets that landed around them with anti-Putin abuse, and the Russians had been pushed further back down the road.
Farmers were clambering over an abandoned T90 tank, trying to get it started and quite quickly diagnosing it had a steering problem. That, and the tank having been trapped the ruins of a collapsed bridge, perhaps explains why it had been abandoned.
But this was not a rare occasion. On Sunday, the regional governor Vitali Kim posted a video of himself inside another captured Russian Tigr vehicle.
Another video showed what seemed to be a significant Russian artillery unit in flames, destroyed or abandoned. The person filming joked that the scarred machines’ remains were what “is what’s left of our ‘brothers,’ the ones that came to ‘save us’” – a reference to Moscow’s gibberish assertion that it is engaged in a special operation to demilitarize and “de-Nazify” Ukrainians subjugated under a vile regime.
The Kremlin’s propaganda – for years something so concentrated and cynical that it found its way into the information ecosystem, and even turned some souls – is dismissed with the same disregard with which it was authored. It really is just nonsense, and it is refreshing to see most sensible media not even give it oxygen.
Odessa is the prize on the coast. On Monday morning as the city was blasted with horizontal snow, the sirens rang out, enflaming residents’ fears of a Russian amphibious landing.
Those last three words sound ridiculous here, in a city with hipster dumpling stores hidden in stairwells, and a series of road signs that tell any new Russian arrivals to “f**k off” (straight ahead), “also to f**k off” (left) and to “f**k off back to Russia” (right).
The entire Russian project in Ukraine is the stuff of a malarial nightmare. Putin’s plan still doesn’t make sense. Did the Kremlin genuinely think that Ukraine would collapse in a week, its citizens welcoming them in?
If so, then why has the strategy swung so rapidly toward a form of collective punishment once it became clear they were not welcome at all? Was there no plan for something in between appreciation and annihilation?
Why are the Russian units we see trying again and again to hit the same targets, often using very similar approaches? Why are so many abandoning their vehicles and accepting capture? And why is the Russian air force, for years flaunted as Putin’s new hi-tech toy, proving so very ineffective?
There is a temptation to seek rational answers to these questions. The reason we are in this dark place is the failure of the rational to dominate in the Kremlin.
We just do not know how far Putin – who over the course of two weeks has tried to encircle a capital city, placed his strategic nuclear defenses on a higher level of alert, used cluster munitions and attacked a nuclear power plant – will go.
Again and again, the war fails to make sense. It seems to be outside the reaches of what I thought our shared reality was. We can only hope it does not stay that way.
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