Opinion: Not even Putin can ignore this domestic reality
Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn’t get a parade in the Ukrainian capital, but a parade is coming soon to Moscow and, whatever happens on the battlefield, the Russian President is likely to declare victory during that event three weeks from now.
May 9 is when Russia marks one of its most important national holidays, Victory Day — the anniversary of Germany’s surrender at the end of World War II. The Kremlin has used that anniversary for more than 70 years to commemorate the successful heroism against the Nazis but, just as importantly, to proclaim to the Russian people and to the country’s friends and foes alike that Moscow’s leaders rule over a great and mighty power.
But even dictators need to worry about their domestic standing. If the Russian people view Putin’s Ukrainian adventure as the disaster it has been so far, his hold on power could weaken.
Even under state-controlled information, some facts can eventually become impossible to conceal. Soldiers will return home to tell their stories to friends and relatives. Thousands will not return. And a small segment of the population may still get its news from abroad. Meanwhile, the Russian people, suffering in dire straits due to sanctions and the departure of many foreign companies from their country, may soon reach an economic breaking point. Either way, slowly the truth will seep in.
That’s why Putin urgently needs to show his campaign as triumphant.
On that day, Putin will likely announce something about Donbas. Perhaps he will declare it has been “liberated” from the “Nazis” whom he claims rule Ukraine (an absurdly false claim, given the Ukrainian President is Jewish himself). Maybe Russia will hold a phony referendum, as it did after it captured Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. If Russia releases a referendum showing most people in Donbas eager to join Russia, remember a recent independent survey does not support that claim.
Another strategic victory for Putin could come if the port city of Mariupol falls, as Russian forces try to establish a land corridor between the territories they control in Donbas and Crimea. That would strengthen Moscow’s control over a large segment of Ukraine, amounting to much more than a symbolic victory. It would be a moral, strategic and economic blow to Ukrainian sovereignty.
To resist the renewed onslaught, Ukraine needs even more help from the West. And Ukraine needs it fast. Putin’s desire to declare victory in three weeks will bring more suffering. But it has also put the Russian leader in potential peril. Whatever he announces on May 9 has to be credible. Otherwise, Putin knows he will become dangerously vulnerable.
After all, the parade is happening in Moscow, not in Kyiv.