PM unveils ‘traffic light’ coronavirus lockdown TODAY

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Medical chiefs sounded a grim warning today about the resurgent threat from coronavirus as Boris Johnson prepares to plunge millions of people into even deeper lockdown.

Hours before the PM is due to set out a new ‘traffic light’ system of curbs for England, top government advisers were sent out to ‘roll the pitch’ with a stark assessment of the danger.

Deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam and NHS medical director Stephen Powis told a briefing in Downing Street that the number of patients in hospital was now higher than before the blanket lockdown was imposed in March – and could be above the previous peak within four weeks.

Professor Van-Tam also delivered a stark message that the surge in cases was a ‘nationwide phenomenon’ rather than just in the North, and was spreading from younger people to the more vulnerable old generation.

Prof Powys said the hope that the elderly could be isolated from the increase in infections was proving to be ‘wishful thinking’. 

Mr Johnson is facing fury as he finally unveils the government’s ‘traffic light’ coronavirus lockdown today – with ministers warning it could last till Christmas.

The PM is defying the wrath of local leaders and Tory MPs to plough ahead with the new system as he desperately struggles to get a grip on surging cases.

Mr Johnson was holding a Cobra emergency meeting this morning to finalise the plan, after a weekend of frantic talks with politicians and scientists. He will then confirm the crackdown in a statement to the Commons, before facing questions at a No10 press conference tonight.

It is understood that Liverpool will feature in ‘Tier Three’, subject to the most draconian restrictions, including shutting pubs and banning households from mixing from 5pm on Wednesday.

Locals will only be allowed out of their areas for essential travel such as for work, education or health, but they must return before the end of the day. Where businesses are forced to shut, the Government will pay two thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.

However, the details – which will be voted on in the Commons tomorrow – remain to be thrashed out as mayors try to squeeze more money out of the government. There is confusion over whether gastropubs will be spared from total closure along with restaurants, which are set to be given a 10.30pm curfew.

Professor Powis told the No10 briefing this morning: ‘As the infection rate has begun to grow across the country, hospital infections have started to rise.

‘It is clear that hospital admissions are rising fastest in those areas of the country where infection rates are highest, particularly the North West.

‘In the over-65s – particularly the over-85s – we are seeing steep rises in the numbers of people being admitted to hospital so the claim that the elderly can somehow be fenced off from risk is wishful thinking.’ 

Prof Van-Tam used a series of charts to underline his fears about the situation snowballing. 

‘It has changed in a matter of just a few days and that is clearly of concern to me,’ he said.

‘There is the spread from those younger age groups into the 60 plus age group in the North West and the North East, and there are rates of change in the same places but also extending a little further south.

‘And this is again of significant concern… because of course the elderly suffer a much worse course with Covid-19, they are admitted to hospital for longer periods, and they are more difficult to save.’ 

As mayors in the North battle to extract more cash and threaten legal action:

• Professor Van-Tam warned that more deaths and hospitalisations are already ‘baked in’ due to the way cases have risen as he laid out a grim assessment of the COVID situation, teeing up the PM’s announcements later; 
• The UK is still well below the grim projection of 50,000 cases a day warned of by Sir Patrick Vallance by this stage. However, 12,872 new infections were reported yesterday – up 9 per cent on last Sunday’s adjusted total;
• London could be place into Tier Two, meaning more restrictions on households mixing, rather than the highest level amid claims that one in eight people in the capital already have antibodies; 
• Researchers found Covid-19 can survive for a month on surfaces including banknotes and phone screens; 
• Town hall bosses will be given powers to deploy volunteers to knock on doors and ask people to self-isolate;
• Labour leaders in the North demanded more cash handouts from the government to support lockdown and called the new furlough scheme ‘insufficient’; 
• The BCG vaccine was given to 1,000 people in Exeter University trial to test claims that it helps fight Covid by stimulating the immune system.

The experts revealed that temporary Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate could be brought back into use to help with the spike in Covid-19 cases.

Prof Powis said there would also be increased testing of health staff in hotspot areas.

He said: ‘To protect our staff and our patients we will be introducing – with tests provided by the Test and Trace service – regular testing for staff in these high-risk areas, even when they don’t have symptoms.

‘This will help us keep staff and patients in those hospitals as safe as possible.

‘Secondly, we have asked the Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate to prepare for this next phase.

‘They are being asked to mobilise over the next few weeks to be ready to accept patients if necessary.’

It will be for local clinicians to decide whether they are used for Covid patients or to provide extra capacity to maintain services for people without coronavirus.

Prof Van-Tam warned that extra deaths were already ‘baked in’ due to the rise in cases and the lag between infections and people becoming seriously ill.

‘Already, with the cases that we know about, we have baked in additional hospital admissions and sadly we also have baked in additional deaths that are now consequent upon infections that have already happened,’ he said. 

He said the problem was ‘nationwide’ and not solely a problem for northern England.

Addressing a slide shown earlier in the briefing about rates increasing in the South of England, he said: ‘You have worried me now that I might have presented a bi-polar picture that Covid-19 is a problem in the North and not a problem in the South.

‘On the contrary, the epidemic this time has clearly picked up pace in the North of England earlier than it did in the first wave and that almost certainly relates to the fact the disease levels in the North, and certainly in the North West, never dropped as far in the summer as they did in the South.

‘But pretty much all areas of the UK are now seeing growths in the infection rate and that extending brown map that I showed you, which is sourced from the Joint Biosecurity Centre, absolutely makes that point.

‘This is a nationwide phenomenon now that rates are changing upwards across the UK.’

Asked about the transmission of the disease in hospitality settings, the medic said: ‘We do know the virus thrives on the thing we like most which is human contact

‘We have increasingly strong evidence about shouting and singing as pressure points on the virus in terms of making the expulsion of virus-laden particles go further and the transmission therefore to become more intense.’

Despite the surge coinciding with the return of schools, Prof Van-Tam said they did not appear to be the driver of the increase.

‘If you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to around the age of 16 and then picking up a bit in the 17-18-year-olds as we drift into that age bracket… of really quite intense transmission,’ he said.

‘The evidence that there is significant transmission in schools is not really borne out by the increased infection rates and indeed we already know that children are not drivers of infection and spread in the community in the same way we know they are for influenza, for example.’

Despite claims that the Three-Tier system was part of a drive to simplify the rules across England, it seems the rules could differ slightly different between locations in even within the same risk band. 

Areas such as Manchester are still fighting to be kept out of the toughest category altogether. 

London is expected to be kept in Tier Two, but that would still mean stronger limits on households socialising.  

The measures will initially be in place for four weeks before a review, but Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden suggested this morning that they are likely to stay in place until Christmas. 

One angry Tory MP for a northern seat told MailOnline: ‘I won’t be going round his house on December 25.’ 

They added: ‘It will be very frustrating if pubs get closed with 48 hours’ notice. Will they get compensated for beer and food thrown away? Why not focus on the elderly and vulnerable and save jobs and lives?’ 

Another MP for an affected region complained that the government was ‘running around like headless chickens’.

For Tier Two, households will not be allowed to mix indoors, similar to restrictions already in place in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool, while Tier One will be similar to the rules currently in place across England. 

In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Dowden said that tough new coronavirus restrictions may be needed until after Christmas.

Mr Dowden told Sky News: ‘If those measures are successful we hope to be able to take areas out of those high levels of restrictions.

‘The purpose of doing this is to ensure we get the virus under control so by the time that we get through to after Christmas we are in that position where it is under control.

‘Indeed I hope it will be sooner than that.’

Mr Dowden denied that the government was ‘panicking’ about rising cases and imposing knee-jerk curbs.  

‘We are certainly not panicking. We are taking reasonable and proportionate measures because we can see the risk coming down the line,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘It is sadly the case that the number of deaths tends to lag the number of infections. If you look at the lead indicators – both the number of infections and now sadly the number of people that are in hospitals with Covid – all of those point to a rapidly rising disease. The path is very clear.’

Mr Dowden said the case for new restrictions on the hospitality sector was supported by the Government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.

‘We know there are challenges around hospitality – for example, the obvious point you can’t wear a mask when you are sat down and eating, that frequently you are in contact (with people) that you don’t normally meet, and we know that the virus thrives on that kind of social interaction.’

The upcoming clampdown is seen as a ‘gamble’ to avoid having to implement a ‘circuit-breaker’ national lockdown over the October half-term.  

Steve Rotheram, mayor of the Liverpool City Region, said discussions on new measures had been going on ‘all night’.

He told BBC Breakfast: ‘We’re still continuing to try and find the fine detail that will give us some comfort that, one, we can go to our nearly two million residents in the Liverpool City Region and explain to them what it is that we’ve negotiated on their behalf, but also we wanted some surety from national government that if we hit some of the milestones we can come out of Tier 3 very quickly.’

He said test and trace with ‘much more local control’, issues around enforcement and ‘one or two other packages of support’ around capacity for local authorities are already ‘in the bag’ but that other details are being worked out.

He said there is a ‘sunset clause’ after four weeks of restrictions, measuring progress, but the meaning of that is not yet known.

Mr Rotheram made clear getting more money was his main aim, and took a thinly-veiled swipe at Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham – usually a close ally – for ‘shouting at the wind’. 

‘What we are trying to do is to see whether we can get support and the support package for the businesses in our city region that will be affected by the government’s decision,’ Mr Rotheram said.

‘We were told we were going into Tier Three, no ifs, no buts. We can either expend energy on that or we can try and get a better deal.

‘Some people like to shout at the wind but if they can’t change the direction of the wind it is important to shield people from its effects.’ 

Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson tweeted to say he had been told ‘no buts’ over what would be imposed on his city.

‘Let’s be clear that having ignored my pleas for over a month, the Government now blame us, and impose ‘lockdown by diktat’ without a full financial package and support for businesses we are levelling down not levelling up,’ he said.

‘We will continue to stand up for our local businesses.’

Politicians from Manchester have launched a last-ditch appeal to ministers not to shut all pubs and restaurants in the city and instead hand them the power to only close those which are not meeting coronavirus safety restrictions. 

The City Council leader Sir Richard Leese said they have made the case that Greater Manchester should be placed in Tier Two rather than closing pubs and bars.

‘They have not been able to show us any data that connects bars and pubs in Greater Manchester with transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They have not been able to provide any evidence that closing them down will work,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘We have far more finely-grained data collected by our own directors of public health that seems to demonstrate that there is not a particular connection between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid.’

Shadow business minister and Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell called on the Government to publish proof that hospitality venues such as pubs were associated with high risk of coronavirus transmissions.

She tweeted: ‘Government and scientists still haven’t produced this evidence. The big problem for them is local leaders have all the same data (in fact better data for their areas) and they know hospitality settings make up a very small proportion of infection transmission.’  

Manchester City Council leader Sir Richard Leese said local officials are still in discussions with the Government as to what restrictions should apply in the area.

He said they have made the case that Greater Manchester should be placed in Tier 2 rather than the stricter Tier 3 which could mean closing pubs and bars.

‘They have not been able to show us any data that connects bars and pubs in Greater Manchester with transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They have not been able to provide any evidence that closing them down will work,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘We have far more finely-grained data collected by our own directors of public health that seems to demonstrate that there is not a particular connection between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid.’

Liverpool recorded the second-highest infection rate in England in the 14 days before October 4, with 4,593 confirmed cases (928.2 per 100,000 people). The neighbouring borough of Knowsley had the worst rate, with 1,412 cases and an infection rate of 944.

Government Sources told MailOnline that Liverpool is ‘basically there’ to be included in Tier Three. 

A Downing Street spokesman said: ‘Our primary focus has always been to protect lives and livelihoods while controlling the spread of the virus and these measures will help achieve that aim.

‘We must do everything we can to protect the NHS and make sure it can continue to deliver the essential services that so many people rely on.

‘This is a critical juncture and it is absolutely vital that everyone follows the clear guidance we have set out to help contain the virus.’ 

Manchester is also understood to be on the verge of Tier Three, with five of the city’s MPs warning Mr Johnson of the ‘devastating impact’ of closing businesses.

Not only would ‘jobs, livelihoods and businesses,’ be put on the line, but more illegal gatherings would result, they said.

The letter was sent by Labour’s Lucy Powell, Jeff Smith, Mike Kane, Afzal Khan and Graham Stringer.  

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has also blasted a lack of communication from the Government, while the leader of Bolton Council David Greenhalgh warned the squeeze would  destroy the economy of the north of England.

 

Meanwhile, night-time economy adviser for Greater Manchester Sacha Lord has started legal proceedings to challenge the Government’s impending lockdown of hospitality and entertainment venues.

Mr Lord said leaders had not seen ‘any tangible scientific evidence to merit a full closure’ of hospitality in the area and said lawyers had been engaged for a Judicial Review into the emergency restrictions due to be imposed on the sectors.

Labour leader Keir Starmer seized on the wrangling to claim the government was treating parts of the country with ‘contempt’.

‘The government has been treating local communities, particularly in the Midlands, North West and North East – and their leaders – with contempt, that Whitehall knows best and we will simply tell you what’s coming your way. It’s just not good enough, you have to take people with you on this, listen to what local leaders are saying,’ he told LBC during a phone-in.

MPs will be asked to debate and vote on the measures later this week.

The Prime Minister will hold a press conference in Downing Street with Chancellor Rishi Sunak and chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty later on Monday.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: ‘Our primary focus has always been to protect lives and livelihoods while controlling the spread of the virus and these measures will help achieve that aim.

‘We must do everything we can to protect the NHS and make sure it can continue to deliver the essential services that so many people rely on.

‘This is a critical juncture and it is absolutely vital that everyone follows the clear guidance we have set out to help contain the virus.’

Number 10 stressed the extent of discussions with local leaders over the weekend following criticism from some Northern authorities and mayors that not enough consultation had taken place since the Covid crisis began.

Downing Street said senior Number 10 advisers and Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick held discussions local authority chiefs and mayors from ‘the highest areas of concern’.

The local authorities have also expressed concern about the impact of harsher restrictions on their own finances, with the statement saying they are existing ‘hand to mouth’.

It said: ‘(We) are currently unable to plan for the medium or long-term.

‘A clearer funding settlement must be achieved that enables us to forward plan, continue to deliver essential public services, avoid large scale redundancies for Local Authority key workers and set a budget for next year with confidence.

‘Therefore, we are seeking assurance from Treasury that, in coming to that national position, no local authorities placed on Tier 3 measures will be put in a position where they are unable to balance their budget this year or cannot set a legal budget next year.

‘In this respect we have agreed that a further discussion with Treasury will take place on this matter.’

The UK recorded another 12,872 coronavirus cases yesterday, marking a nine per cent increase on last Sunday’s adjusted total which followed the Government’s extraordinary figures blunder.

The figures mark a 2,294-case drop from Saturday’s daily total of 15,166. Saturday’s death toll was 81 – 16 more deaths than the 65 recorded today. 

Over the weekend Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer said ‘the seasons are against us’ and the country is running into a ‘headwind’ ahead of the winter months.

In a statement, Prof Van-Tam said that while the epidemic ‘re-started’ again among younger people over the past few weeks, there is ‘clear evidence of a gradual spread into older age groups’ in the worst-hit areas.

But he also said the UK has ‘much improved testing capabilities’ and ‘better treatments’ available, meaning that ‘we know where it is and how to tackle it’.

He stressed the importance of following public health guidance and minimising contact with others, adding: ‘I know this is very hard, but it is an unfortunate scientific fact that the virus thrives on humans making social contact with one another.’ 

Risk of coronavirus death in hospital is FALLING: Treatment helps intensive care fatalities drop to 20%, new figures reveal 

The chances of surviving coronavirus after falling critically ill have increased significantly since the pandemic began, data shows.

Scientists say improved treatment has seen death rates in the most seriously ill patients fall by almost a third since the peak.

The figures have also been helped by more widespread testing picking up a greater number of less serious cases.

The proportion of patients dying in hospital intensive care units has fallen from around 30 per cent to below 20 per cent since April.

The fall in the death rate as a proportion of all patients admitted to hospital is even more striking – plummeting from 6 per cent at the peak to around 2 per cent now.

Professor Peter Horby, a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, welcomed the ‘good news’ amid rising case numbers.

He said increased testing and tracing capabilities combined with a ‘much better understanding of the disease’ has led to death rates among the sickest dropping to a less than a fifth. 

‘What’s great to see is that it is the risk of death in hospitalised patients is coming down,’ he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.

‘It was pretty high at about 25 to 30 per cent in the last wave. And although the data are preliminary, it looks like it’s coming down and may be below 20 per cent so that’s something that is good news.’

Experts agree that treatment breakthroughs have had the most significant effect on the rate of people dying from coronavirus. 

Dexamethasone, a common steroid which costs around 50p a day, has been found to cut deaths among the sickest patients by a third.

The antiviral drug remdesivir, originally developed to tackle Ebola, has also been found to improve recovery time in the sickest patients.