Freedom Day dawns: Britons rejoice as they can go back inside pubs, cinemas and friend’s homes TODAY
SAGE scientists urge caution as Freedom Day dawns: Experts warn hugging is ‘high risk’ and say they ‘won’t be going indoors’ while Indian variant remains on the rise as raft of lockdown measures end TODAY
- From today, pubs, restaurants and cafes can serve customers indoors, cinemas and hotels can reopen
- But SAGE scientist Jeremy Farrar says he ‘wouldn’t for the moment’ take part in these new found freedoms
- His colleagues also rule out going to the pub and advise against ‘high risk procedure’ of hugging someone
- Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted ministers would not allow the new variant to ‘spread like wildfire’
- Tory MPs called on the PM to reject warnings from scientists that lockdown curbs may have to remain in place
A slew of Boris Johnson’s top scientists today warned against socialising indoors and the ‘high risk’ of hugging friends with the Indian variant on the rise despite Britons now being free to go back inside pubs, restaurants and cinemas as well as stay with friends for the first time since Christmas.
The Prime Minister has also urged families to adopt a ‘heavy dose of caution’ and a minister encouraged revellers to avoid ‘excessive drinking’ amid an eight per cent rise in infections in a week and concerns the total scrapping of restrictions on June 21 is under threat.
Last night thousands of people queued across the UK to enjoy a drink with friends inside pubs and bars after midnight, while this morning around 20 flights took off for Portugal as holidays became legal again and people enjoyed a pint and a meal inside for the first time in almost six months. Theatres, cinemas and museums can also open their doors again this morning.
But Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a senior member of the SAGE committee, said today that he would not meet indoors ‘at the moment’, despite millions of people now having the opportunity to do so.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘I think it is reasonable to just be sensible about knowing where transmission is occurring, mostly indoors, mostly in larger gatherings indoors with lots of different people, different families, different communities, and I would just restrict that at the moment personally.’ But he added: ‘I don’t think it’s unreasonable to lift the restrictions – we do need to lift the restrictions at some point, we’ve been in restrictions now for a very long time.’
Hugging is a ‘high-risk procedure’, Professor Peter Openshaw said. The professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, who is a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), told BBC Breakfast: ‘Some of us are quite happy not to be hugging and kissing many times on the cheek. This is a high-risk procedure, I would say in medical terms and I would certainly not be embracing people closely. I think you can greet people perfectly well at a distance with a smile and a kind word.’
Referring to today’s new freedoms, Professor Sir Mark Walport, England’s former chief scientific adviser who also sits on SAGE, claimed that just because people are legally allowed to do something doesn’t mean they should. He told the Guardian: ‘My personal judgement is that I will do things outside as far as possible. My advice is that just because you can do something doesn’t necessarily mean you should.’
SAGE adviser Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, suggested people should avoid going to pubs or restaurants in areas with low vaccine uptake or high Indian variant case numbers.
He told LBC Radio he would only dine indoors if the establishment ‘was suitably organised and it looked okay and was in an area of low prevalence and the clientele was very old [and therefore mostly vaccinated].’ He added: ‘I’ll certainly hug my children and grandchildren and others very close to me. But will I be hugging strangers? No’.
Sir John Bell, emeritus professor of medicine at Oxford University and prominent SAGE member, urged people to use their newfound freedoms ‘cautiously’. He told The Times: ‘I don’t want to be a party pooper but the most important thing is not to prolong this any longer than we absolutely have to, so going about this cautiously could be quite helpful to everybody.’
While Dr Zubaida Haque, from Independent Sage, told BBC Essex that with the India variant in circulation, indoor mixing for the next 2-3 weeks ‘is a really dangerous idea’ and could lead to ‘thousands of hospitalisations’.
The easing of lockdown – and the warnings not to get carried away – came as:
- Ministers are at loggerheads over whether to extend lockdown beyond June 21 to protect ‘idiot’ vaccine refuseniks from the Indian variants;
- A stampede of tourists head to Portugal as the Government’s traffic light system comes into force today;
- The NHS app will contain a Covid passport from today so patients prove they have had the jab – but critics continue voice privacy fears about its use;
- The coronavirus vaccines appear to be 97 per cent effective against infection from the new Indian variant, it has been suggested, with studies by laboratories in the UK and India have recorded no deaths among the vaccinated population from the new strain;

Huddersfield: Many bars opened at midnight to welcome customers inside for the first time in months as these revellers said cheers at 12.01am

Libby Jones, right, with her colleague Shannon Maiden, both nurses from Great Ormond Street hospital who have just finished an overnight shift, have a pint of cider at the Shakespeare’s Head pub

David Drummond is the first to have a pint in his local Wetherspoons this morning at 9am

Passengers prepare to board an easyJet flight to Faro, Portugal, at Gatwick Airport in West Sussex after the ban on international leisure travel for leisure ended

The first BA passengers flying to Portugal head off from Heathrow’s Terminal 5 today as holidays became legal again

Drinkers in Edinburgh enjoyed an early breakfast of three pints of lager as restrictions were eased in Scotland

May Morris is hugged by her granddaughter Francesca Royle for the first time in months this morning in Carlisle

A customer about to start his Full English at Smokey Joe’s Cafe in Falmouth, where he was dining inside

Great to be back! Juliet Arthur (left) and Jane Harrison (right) enjoy their first Sauna at the Laboratory Spa and Health Club in South London

Stars of the West End Noah Thomas and Shane Richie of Everybodys Talking About Jamie officially reopen London’s arts and culture district in Piccadilly Circus as government Covid-19 restriction ease

Customers inside the Mile Castle pub in Newcastle, as indoor hospitality and entertainment venues reopen to the public following the further easing of lockdown restrictions in England

Sheffield: Students wait outside a bar in West Street as it prepares to serve customers after midnight to mark the latest lifting of lockdown measures

Friends are allowed to embrace after the relaxation of rules and these young women took full advantage


Coventry: Customers enjoy a game of pool and hugging at the The Oak Inn as indoor hospitality and entertainment venues reopen

Just after 1am in the Showtime Bar in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, as indoor hospitality and entertainment venues reopen to the public

Left to right: Rosie Delaney, Isobel Loan and Rebecca Mitchell get their first drink at 00:11 at the Showtime Bar in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, as indoor hospitality and entertainment venues reopen to the public

Boris Johnson (pictured today) has urged families to adopt a ‘heavy dose of caution’ with the ban on indoor socialising and hugs finally ending on Monday

Revellers in Newcastle’s Switch Bar among the first in the country to enjoy indoor drinking for the first time this year as bars reopen seconds after midnight this morning

From Monday, pubs, restaurants and cafes can serve customers indoors, cinemas and hotels can reopen and people can embrace loved ones from other households for the first time in more than a year. Pictured: Revellers in Newcastle’s Switch Bar among the first in the country to enjoy indoor drinking for the first time this year as bars reopen seconds after midnight this morning

From Monday, pubs, restaurants and cafes can serve customers indoors, cinemas and hotels can reopen and people can embrace loved ones from other households for the first time in more than a year

Matt Hancock warned people to ‘be careful’ when hugging others tomorrow, when restaurants and pubs in England will be able to serve customers indoors for the first time since December

The Hippodrome in Leicester Square reopens its doors at 00.01 on Monday to hundreds of customers


An emergency meeting will be held by experts at the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies committee on Thursday after it was found that India’s Covid variant is now dominant in five local authorities in England. There are mounting concerns that it is more infectious than the currently dominant Kent strain
The scientists spoke out this morning after a guarded statement before revellers packed into pubs to celebrate the lifting of restrictions, where the Prime Minister said the emergence of the Indian strain of coronavirus meant the restored freedoms should be exercised carefully.
Tory MPs however called on Mr Johnson to reject warnings from scientists that lockdown curbs may have to remain in place longer because of the new variant. Britain recorded four new daily Covid deaths and 1,926 cases yesterday as Matt Hancock urged people to hug ‘carefully’ and get jabbed to prevent the new Indian strain spreading ‘like wildfire’.
Amid rising cases in pockets of the north-west because of the Indian strain of Covid, Mr Hancock said that most of the 18 people hospitalised in Bolton ‘haven’t had the jab but are eligible’, with the aim now to administer up to 1million jabs per days as soon as possible and encourage more people to take it.
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has insisted he is ‘very confident’ all coronavirus restrictions will be eased on June 21 – before admitting there are ‘no cast iron guarantees’
Asked if the opening up this Monday was going too far, Professor Graham Medley told LBC: “Well that’s a Government decision, my job is …to kind of assess the risks, and then the Government’s job is to manage them.
“There has always been a risk that if we have another wave of infection between now and the end of the vaccination programme that we will end up with large numbers of people in hospital.
“This new variant does seem to be more transmissible, and so it’s just increased that risk a bit.”
He said there was “some suggestion” that vaccines might be slightly weakened against the Indian variant “but there’s no clear data to suggest that so I think we are working to the positive at the moment, that the vaccine is going to work.”
On whether he would go to a pub or restaurant indoors on Monday, he said: “If it was suitably organised, and it looks OK and I was in an area with low prevalence and the clientele was very old, then I would think ‘OK, fair enough, they’ve all been vaccinated’.
“I think it’s about individual risks and people taking that choice, which is different from what the Government has to do which is to avoid the risk of large numbers of people in hospital again.
There is a risk that the variant first identified in India could be transmitted by people travelling out of the UK, Sir Jeremy Farrar said.
The director of the Wellcome Trust told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘Britain is a very connected, and very small country and the chance of local cases becoming regional and then regional becoming national is very clear.
‘And it is also connected internationally and I think that’s also a concern not only for importation of new variants coming into the country, but also people travelling out of the country – there is a risk that this variant B.617 could be transmitted from the UK now.
‘I think travel should still be very cautious and only when absolutely essential.
‘But the only way to stop these variants occurring is to drive down transmission.’
He added: ‘The biggest risk to countries like the UK – who have done very well with vaccine rollout – is variants arising from anywhere in the world and then spreading around the world when they have a biological advantage.
‘So driving down transmission in this country is essential, but so is it in the rest of the world, and that means driving down transmission and making vaccines available globally.’
Sir Jeremy warned that restrictions may have to be reversed if the new variant ‘escapes’ protection afforded to people by the Covid-19 vaccines.
‘The new variant that has come, the B.167, is becoming dominant in parts of the UK,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
‘Yet vaccination across the country has been extraordinarily successful.
‘I think we will see an increase of cases and infections over the coming weeks as some of the restrictions are lifted, but I think the key question is whether we have decoupled increased transmission and number of people who do get infected from the number of people that get ill and need to go into hospital or with long Covid.
‘If we’ve decoupled them, then I think the country can cope with a marginal degree of an increase in transmission.
‘So that is the key question and to be honest, we don’t know that today and that is why I think a very careful lifting is reasonable, but we may have to reverse that if there is escape from the vaccine.’
He added: ‘I just think we’re at this point where we’ve lifted restrictions, and yet we don’t have that full amount of information – I think it is reasonable to lift them today, but I do believe all of us need to be really, really careful.’
The government’s Covid dashboard showed there was an eight per cent increase in cases over last week, as most of the UK prepares to loosen Covid restrictions tomorrow.
The UK’s daily death toll has doubled on last week, from two on May 9 to four yesterday – bringing the UK total to 127,679 dead. There were a reported 129 people on ventilation in hospital in the UK and 991 people currently hospitalised due to virus, as of Thursday May 13 – the latest figures available.
From Monday, pubs, restaurants and cafes can serve customers indoors, cinemas and hotels can reopen and people can embrace loved ones from other households for the first time in more than a year.
But health experts have told Britons to ignore Government advice and stay outside, despite today’s relaxation of lockdown rules.
Professor Sir Mark Walport, a member of the Sage scientific advisory group, warned the pandemic was at a ‘perilous moment’ and it was ‘extremely important’ to keep a close eye on the numbers over the next few weeks.
‘My personal judgement is that I will do things outside as far as possible,’ he said. ‘My advice is that just because you can do something doesn’t necessarily mean you should.’
When asked by Sky News’ Sophie Ridge if that meant he would be staying outside, he replied: ‘Outside for the moment, yes.’
And professor of public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Martin McKee, agreed, telling the Guardian: ‘Based on the precautionary principle and on the experience in earlier waves, I am very concerned. Personally I will not be going indoors in bars or restaurants for some time.
Matt Hancock insisted ministers would not allow the new variant to ‘spread like wildfire’ and suggested only the fully vaccinated should embrace, and even then outdoors.
And the Health Secretary infuriated travel firms by warning against trips abroad, despite today’s lifting of the ban on foreign holidays.
Sir Graham Brady, a senior Tory MP, urged the Prime Minister not to ‘panic’ over the new variant, which is still rare in the UK.
And his colleague Iain Duncan Smith said it was ‘bonkers’ to even consider further delays to reopening when evidence suggested existing vaccines worked against the Indian strain.
Today’s easing of Covid curbs is the biggest since the latest lockdown began in January.
Hotels and B&Bs can reopen to take advantage of the lifting of the ban on overnight stays while cinemas, museums and soft play centres can reopen their doors. The £5,000 fines for taking a foreign holiday will be scrapped.
Economists believe that families could splash out more than £800million this week as they celebrate the chance to meet loved ones again for the first time in months.
However Mr Johnson warned: ‘Together we have reached another milestone in our roadmap out of lockdown, but we must take this next step with a heavy dose of caution.
‘We are keeping the spread of the variant first identified in India under close observation and taking swift action where infection rates are rising.’
A week ago he declared Britain was on track to lift all remaining Covid curbs on June 21. But he rowed back from the pledge on Friday, saying the emergence of the new variant meant there was now ‘a real risk of disruption’.
The dramatic shift in tone followed a warning from government scientists that the fast-spreading variant could spark a surge in cases, especially with the resumption of indoor socialising.
Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said early data on the effectiveness of the vaccines on the Indian variant looked ‘OK’.
Former Tory leader Sir Iain said: ‘People are getting in a panic about this new variant, when we should be celebrating the fact that the vaccines work – it is bonkers.
‘Ministers have to avoid the Corporal Jones mentality, tell the scientists to get back to their labs and get on with giving people back their freedom.’
With the Foreign Office now advising against travel to Israel, Portugal is the only sizeable ‘green list’ destination for British travellers looking to use their new freedom.
Government sources said the release of an updated version of the NHS app did not mean Covid passports would be introduced domestically.
Those who are eligible for a vaccine in Bolton are being urged to take up the offer to guard against the Indian variant, the Business Secretary said.
Kwasi Kwarteng said he did not want to ‘stigmatise people’ over alleged vaccine hesitancy, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today: ‘What we are trying to do in Bolton is encourage people who haven’t taken the vaccine to do so.
‘I think that is being more effective – certainly at the beginning of the year, there was a certain degree of resistance to taking the vaccine.
‘We’re not exactly where we want to be among certain communities but I think the take-up has been much greater in the last few months and more and more people are convinced that this is the way to keep themselves and their families safe.’
He added: ‘I would urge them (those who are eligible) very clearly to take up the vaccine.’
Mr Kwarteng defended the Government’s timing when adding India to the red list of countries where returning travellers are required to quarantine in a hotel, and said he was ‘very confident’ vaccines would protect against the variant first discovered in the South Asian country.
Asked whether the UK was ‘too slow’ to close its borders to India, the Business Secretary told LBC radio: ‘I don’t think we were.
‘India was put on the red list on April 23 – before the variant was even identified we could see that there was something wrong.
‘And even if you arrived from India before April 23, you had to have a quarantine and there were measures in place to restrict the danger.
‘It is easy with hindsight to say things could have been better or quicker and all the rest of it, but I think there was a balanced approach.
‘I think April 23 was fairly early – a month ago nearly – and we’ve managed to contain this variant, partly – principally actually – because of the rollout.
‘The rollout has been very successful, something like 36 million people so far have had the first dose, 20 million have had two doses, and we are very confident that the vaccination will deal with the Indian variant as it has done with other variants of coronavirus.’
Dr Helen Wall, who is leading the vaccination effort in Bolton, said that over the weekend more than 6,200 vaccines were administered in the area.
Long queues of people were seen waiting for vaccines in the region – which is one of the places where the new variant of concern first identified in India has been spreading.
‘We’re seeing people coming forward that clearly had the option to have the jab for some time – older people, disabled people – and they’ve chosen to come forward now,’ Dr Wall told BBC Breakfast.
‘I think in part that’s because we brought this into the community as a trusted place, but also the things that are going on in Bolton are quite worrying for people and I think that’s given some push to people coming forward now for the vaccine.’
She said before the weekend there were around 10,000 people in the area in the highest priority groups – those deemed to be clinically vulnerable and the over-50s – who were yet to be vaccinated, but added: ‘I’m hoping that we’ve made a big dent into that now’.
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said there were ‘concerns’ about small numbers of older people who are yet to take up their vaccine offer.
‘The biggest risk comes from, if there are large numbers of older people who are unvaccinated,’ he told Times Radio.
‘Now the good news is we’ve done very well with the vaccine take-up but there is a very small number who are eligible for the vaccine, who actually haven’t taken it and surprise, surprise, as the Secretary of State was saying yesterday, that’s the majority of cases that we are now seeing.
‘And as he said there were five people who’ve had a single dose in hospital, and only one person who’s had a double dose – so that does suggest that Sir John Bell is correct when he says that actually the vaccine is really efficacious.
‘The real issue is that we know that there are communities of people who haven’t been vaccinated and who are eligible – and we know there’s a link for example to deprivation, we know there’s a link to ethnicity.’
A coronavirus vaccine should be given to younger people in those parts of the country where the Indian variant is causing concern, London Mayor Sadiq Khan has said.
He said he has asked Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi for the ‘flexibility to give younger people the vaccine in those parts of London concerned about this strain’.
Mr Khan told Sky News that ‘what we are saying is be nimble in those pockets where we know there is an issue, let’s use the vaccine sensibly’.
He added there should be a ‘hyper-local approach’ in affected boroughs which should include ‘those who are younger, who would have to wait a few weeks, to have this vaccine now to avoid the strain spreading’.
Mr Khan urged people to test regularly and told the programme that ‘the virus isn’t rigid and doesn’t follow rigid rules and we have got to be nimble in our response to it’.
Mr Khan has also urged people to ‘support British business’ as lockdown rules ease.
He told Sky News: ‘We have begun the biggest domestic tourism campaign London has ever seen encouraging Londoners to come back to the West End and encouraging those across the country, who maybe a bit crestfallen that they cannot go on their international holidays, ‘don’t worry everything you need is in London’.’
He said ‘this is probably the only spring and summer where you are not competing against international tourists’ for museum, gallery or restaurant bookings.
He told the programme: ‘It is important that we of course have a good time, stay safe but also protect jobs.
‘The reality is that one out of five Londoners works in hospitality or culture and so you can safely have a great time and also support British business.’
A senior Government minister has urged people not to booze too heavily on the first day of being permitted to eat and drink inside pubs again.
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng told LBC radio: ‘What the Prime Minister has said very clearly is, yes, we are opening partially ahead of June 21 but we’ve got to behave sensibly, we’ve got to exercise some caution because if people get too carried away, we could jeopardise the ability to reopen on June 21.’
Asked how people could exercise caution at the pub, the Cabinet minister said: ‘It is fairly clear to me in terms of common sense that what you can do is socialise in a normal way but obviously we advise ordinarily against excessive drinking, endangering people, getting too many large groups together if that can be avoided.
‘That’s what he means, that we need to be cautious because if we get too carried away and the mutant variant spreads too quickly, that could endanger our ability to open up on June 21.’




Door-to-door Covid ‘hit squads’ are heading to Bolton and Blackburn, where the Indian strain is at its most virulent, to focus on areas with the greatest ‘vaccine hesitancy’. Pictured: A queue for the jabs at the pop up centre in Bolton
Vaccines prevent 97 per cent of Covid infections from Indian variant and NO fully vaccinated people in UK have died from it, scientists say
The coronavirus vaccines are 97 per cent effective against infection from the Indian variant, data suggests.
While the UK has recorded more than 1,313 cases of the new strain, the Government said it is not aware of anyone who has died after being given both jabs.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that, of the 18 people hospitalised with the variant in hotspot Bolton, just one person was fully vaccinated, although most were eligible.
Mr Hancock said the fully-vaccinated patient had been ‘very frail’ and therefore vulnerable to infection. Another five of the patients had only received their first jab.
A SAGE member today said that data from lab studies into the effectiveness of vaccines on the new strain were ‘rather promising’.
Sir John Bell, from the University of Oxford which is conducting the research, said the new variant appeared to slightly reduce the ability to neutralise the virus, but added that it was ‘not very great’.
Meanwhile in India, a study of 3,235 healthcare workers who had had the AstraZeneca shot found 85 symptomatic cases of Covid, with just two of those being hospitalised.
The study at Indraprastha Apollo Hospital in New Delhi had not recorded any deaths or ICU admissions among vaccinated patients. Researchers said the study highlighted the power of vaccination.
Dr Anupam Sibal, group medical director, told the Telegraph: ‘Our study demonstrated that 97.38 per cent of those vaccinated were protected from an infection and hospitalisation rate was only 0.06 per cent.’

On Saturday, thousands of residents queued outside a mobile jabs centre to get a jab after it emerged there were 4,000 available that had to be used on the day

Health Secretary Matt Hancock today said out of the 18 cases in Bolton hospitals – Britain’s worst hotspot – just one person was fully vaccinated, although most were eligible
Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said data from his team’s lab studies into he variant was ‘rather promising’.
‘It looks like the Indian variant will be susceptible to the vaccine in the way that others are,’ he told Times Radio.
‘The data looks rather promising. I think the vaccinated population are going to be fine. And we just need to pump our way through this.’
Mr Hancock said that the early findings from the Oxford investigation showed that the innoculations available were effective against the variant and would encourage people to take up the offer of the vaccine as a result.
Appearing on Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday he said: ‘There’s new very early data out from Oxford University, and I would stress that this is from the labs, it’s not clinical data, and it’s very early.
‘But it does give us a degree of confidence that the vaccines work against this Indian variant, but it is clearly more transmissible and has been spreading fast in the groups where there’s a cluster.
‘That means that we can stay on course with our strategy of using the vaccine to deal with the pandemic and opening up carefully and cautiously but we do need to be really very vigilant to the spread of the disease. We have a high degree of confidence that the vaccine will overcome.’
Mr Hancock did however admit the Indian variant will likely become the dominant variant across the UK, having already hit areas such as Bolton and Blackburn in the north west.
On Saturday, thousands of residents queued outside a mobile jabs centre to get a jab after it emerged there were 4,000 available that had to be used on the day.
And coronavirus ‘hit squads’ were continuing to go door-to-door on Sunday, offering entire multi-generational households inoculations.
Figures shows that uptake of either the Pfizer or Astrazeneca vaccines in Bolton and Blackburn are lagging slightly behind the national average, but more worryingly the highest rates of infections are also in wards with the lowest take-up.
It comes as England is set to allow its most significant easing of restrictions today, with pubs, restaurants and cafe allowing customers to sit inside, while museums, theatres and cinemas can welcome visitors back.
Experts however have said allowing the May 17 changes could ‘lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations’ that is ‘similar to, or larger than, previous peaks’.
Sage’s Professor Susan Michie said the Government should suspend the unlocking, the Sunday Times reported.
‘If we are following data not dates, it is surprising that the road map is going ahead without adjustment,’ the University College London academic said.
‘Opening indoor hospitality venues has the potential to increase Covid-19 transmission.’
And Professor Kit Yates, a member of the Independent Sage committee of experts, suggested a delay of a fortnight would buy the nation valuable time to progress with the vaccine programme.
‘The more people we can vaccinate, the safer we become,’ he told the Observer.
‘Even a couple of weeks at this point could make a huge difference in the face of this seemingly more transmissible variant. A pause would also buy us time to understand more about the properties of the variant, which would put us in a better position to plan what comes next.’
How concerned should we be about the Indian variant? Rapid spread could put the end of Covid curbs in jeopardy – but experts say there is no need to panic
It was a distinctly gloomy end to a week that had, at its start, seemed filled with promise.
On Friday, the Prime Minister warned his plans to end all Covid curbs were in jeopardy due to the rapid spread of the Indian variant of Covid-19.
The Government was ‘taking nothing off the table’ in the fight against it.
Scientists speaking to The Mail on Sunday say the Prime Minister is right to be cautious.
Last week, the UK saw its biggest rise in Covid cases since early January – helped by the rise of this new mutation.
As one expert warned: ‘A third wave of infections is already upon us.’
Crucially, Government scientists have said the Indian variant was ‘up to 50 per cent more infectious than the Kent variant’ – the latter being the most prevalent version of the virus in the UK at present.

A Warwick University model of a more infectious variant after lockdown is completely lifted on June 21 suggests that any more than a 30 per cent increase in transmissibility compared to the Kent variant could lead to an August peak of daily hospital admissions that is higher than either the first or second wave. In a worst-case scenario with a variant 50 per cent more transmissible, hospital admissions could surge to 10,000 per day or even double that (Thick lines indicate the central estimate while the thin lines are possible upper limits known as confidence intervals)
Experts say the elderly and clinically vulnerable are now well protected through vaccination, but argue that a rise in cases could make the rare occasion where vaccines don’t work more common.
Experts also argue that a rise in infections could lead to the virus reaching pockets of vulnerable, unvaccinated people across the country – those who opted not to have the jab, for instance.
All this could lead to a new wave of infections – which the Government advisory body SAGE warned could be as large as the first wave.
But last night, an intriguing theory began to circulate: could the reason the new variant is spreading so rapidly in certain hot-spots be simply due to behavioural factors?
The mutation arrived via travellers returning from India, into multi-generational homes in locations like Bolton, Greater Manchester, Blackburn in Lancashire, and Sefton in Merseyside.
These regions have seen a rapid spread through these households, and among those employed in industries where social distancing may be harder, and home working not an option.
However data suggests that, once it gets outside of these communities, the Indian variant does not spread quite as rapidly. University of Leicester virologist Prof Julian Tang said: ‘When you look at transmissibility, you have to be very careful.
Modellers often say they have taken behavioural factors into account, but it’s often not that simple.

Similar but less grim modelling by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggested that a 50 per cent increase in transmissibility could trigger a peak of 4,000 admissions per day in July or August, possibly extending to 6,000 per day

The LSHTM model suggested hospitals could have another 30,000 inpatients by the end of July – up to around 45,000 – compared to the current 845

The LSHTM team suggested that there will be 1,000 deaths per day in August if the variant is 50 per cent more transmissible – which would be less than the 1,900 seen at the peak this January
‘We saw this with the Kent variant last winter – the most rapid spread was seen in areas that were released into Tier Two after the November lockdown.
‘Places like London had the least restrictions, and the most mixing, so we saw the highest transmission of that variant.
‘This would indicate it wasn’t to do with any inherent genetic quality of the virus, but more due to the environment it was placed in. The same could be true of the Indian variant.
‘It could have genetic changes that make it a bit more transmissible, but without properly looking at the virus in a lab setting, it’s impossible to say.’
Crucially, at present, there is no evidence to suggest Covid vaccines are ineffective against the Indian variant.
On Friday, Public Health England confirmed that between May 5 and May 12, out of a total of 97 Covid deaths during that period, four deaths were linked to the mutation.
However, fully vaccinated Britons still have a very low risk of becoming seriously ill if they catch it, experts believe. This has, so far, been reflected in the data.
While 12 per cent more Covid cases were reported last week than the week before – just over 2,200 – hospitalisations have continued to fall.
Now, a little more than 1,000 people are in hospital with the virus in the UK. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: ‘This variant is going to spread widely. But the most important question is whether more people are going to end up in hospital as a result.
‘Right now, there’s nothing to suggest that is happening.’
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, said the rise of the variant was reason to be cautious but maintained there was no need to panic.
He said: ‘All indications are that the vaccines are going to continue to do their job.’
On Friday, the Government announced it would be stepping up vaccination efforts in hotspots. People over 50 living in areas of high infection will be offered their second dose of the vaccine early.
A study published last week by Cambridge University scientists, found that 33 staff members of a care home in New Delhi, who were all fully vaccinated with the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab, tested positive for the Indian variant – though none of the staff members was seriously ill as a result of infection.
Scientists involved in the study still say the findings were ‘worrying’. Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at Cambridge University, said: ‘We thought everyone would be protected [but] the virus was able to get around the vaccine.’
But others have stressed the need for calm. Prof Hunter said: ‘There is reasonable evidence to suggest it can lead to infections in vaccinated people, but that doesn’t really matter unless you get seriously ill.’
What’s more, there is nothing to suggest fully vaccinated people in the UK are being infected with the Indian variant. In Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen, cases have risen sharply in younger groups.
But, in the over-60s, the majority of whom should have had both jabs, infections are holding steady. Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty said it was possible vaccines were working as a ‘firebreak’, protecting over-45s from infection.
With much still unknown about the variant, scientists say the next step out of lockdown needs to be taken with caution.
Government scientists say a ‘significant resurgence of hospitalisations’ is possible as a result of easing restrictions.
From tomorrow, indoor social mixing will be allowed for the first time in more than five months.
Prof Hunter said: ‘Monday’s relaxations are a biggie. Even without this new variant, meeting indoors was always going to be a nervous point in the plan because the majority of infections take place indoors.
‘We are going to find out very soon if it leads to a rise in hospitalisations.’
Prof Young says a slow and steady approach in the next few weeks will be important. ‘I don’t think there’s any reason to say tomorrow’s easing shouldn’t take place, but it needs to be done cautiously.’
Some have suggested the rise of the Indian variant calls into question the fourth and final step out of lockdown, on June 21.
If there were a wave, as some have suggested, as big at the first, then the Government would presumably have no other option.
Prof Young, though, doesn’t see this happening, saying. ‘Any rise in hospitalisations and deaths we see won’t be anywhere near previous waves because we have the vaccines now.
‘While it is still spreading we have to be cautious, but I don’t think variants should stop us getting back to some sort of normality.’
On the way to freedom! You can drink inside a pub, go the movies, hug or take a foreign holiday from TODAY as Covid lockdown rules are eased further despite concern at Indian variant
Life will take a step closer to normality from tomorrow as more restrictions are removed giving the green light for people to go to sport, drink in a pub and hug people – sensibly.
As of Monday groups of six or two households will be allowed to meet indoors for the first time in months and overnight visits will also be allowed.
The changes come amid concerns about the rising numbers of the Indian variant of Covid-19, with the Government insisting it is ‘taking nothing off the table’ in the fight against it.
Outdoors the limit will rise to 30 in the most significant loosening yet while people will also be able to fly abroad to countries on the green list.
Some revellers were so excited for the new rules to come into place they went to their favourite pubs and bars at the stroke of midnight to celebrate their new freedom.

Some of the first through the doors were (from left) Rebecca Mitchell, Rosie Delaney and Isobel Logan at the Showtime Bar in Huddersfield

The delighted trio toasted to their newly allowed freedom as they downed their first drinks at a few minutes past midnight
There will be relief for the entertainment sector as cinemas and theatres can reopen if people wear masks and hotels and B&Bs which do not have self-catering facilities are permitted to open.
Preston Benson, one of the UK’s leading independent cinema experts, and Founder of Really Local Group, heralded their return, saying: ‘After 15 months of disruption, cinema fans will be spoilt for choice as the studios begin releasing an exciting mix of independent films, such as the Oscar winning Nomadland and many delayed Blockbuster films such as A Quiet Place II, Disney’s Cruella, Black Widow and Fast & Furious 9. The studios rightly held back these films until cinemas were allowed to re-open in the knowledge that the traditional distribution model is best for business and we look forward to welcoming customers back in the coming weeks.’
The much-criticised cap on the number of mourners at funerals will be lifted, while up to 30 people will be allowed at weddings and other life events.
Last week Prime Minister Boris Johnson thanked the public for their commitment as he said infections were now at the ‘lowest level since last July’.
He said: ‘The data now support moving to step three in England from next Monday 17th May.’

People will be able to enjoy a drink inside a pub from tomorrow, to the relief of those who have shivered outside with friends

Saunas and steam rooms will now be allowed to reopen, following on from swimming pools and gyms on April 12

Up to six people from multiple households or an unlimited number of people from two households will be allowed to visit

Sports fans will be able to watch their favourite teams live from tomorrow, with Premier League games set to go ahead this week with fans in stadiums

Nightclubs must remain shut until at least June 21

Up to 30 people will be allowed at weddings

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