‘Professor Lockdown’ says he expects Chris Whitty to approve Covid vaccines for 12 to 15-year-olds

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Britain is likely to press ahead with vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds, ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson claimed today.

The SAGE adviser — whose modelling spooked ministers into the initial lockdown in March — said he expects Chris Whitty and the other chief medical officers to approve jabs for the age group.

The Government’s vaccine advisory panel on Friday said it would not recommend jabs for children because Covid poses such a low risk to their health.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) — which is independent of Government — has now left the decision with Professor Whitty and the three other chief medical officers (CMOs) in the devolved nations. 

They will meet this week to decide whether the broader societal benefits — including keeping schools open during winter — tip the balance in favour of jabbing children, with a decision expected by Friday.

Speaking at an online conference, he said: ‘On balance, I think we will probably move to vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds. 

‘The question becomes even finer going into younger age groups (under-12s), but focusing on teenage secondary school children — I think we will move in that direction.’

He added: ‘It would not surprise me if the chief medical officers… would decide to go forward with vaccination (of 12 to 15-year-olds).’ 

Scientists are divided over whether 12 to 15-year-olds should get the Covid vaccine, with some SAGE members backing the move yesterday arguing it would help to head off a surge in infections later this winter. 

But others have argued it would be ethically dubious to inoculate the age group when millions of people in poorer countries are still waiting to be vaccinated. 

The JCVI advises the Government on who should receive vaccines, whereas the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) which Professor Ferguson gives guidance to gives advice to ministers on how they should respond to emergenceis such as outbreaks of infectious diseases. 

Speaking at the online conference hosted by the Institute for Government, Professor Ferguson pointed out that the JCVI had said it was marginally beneficial to children to get the Covid vaccine.

He said: ‘So long as you are convinced there is some individual benefit (to vaccinating children), then it is valid to consider the population benefit.

‘That would be that vaccinating that age group would drive down transmission in the population on the whole.’

He added that the JCVI may not have recommended younger children get the jab because of concern over the very rare side effect myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart.

The JCVI said in July the risk of this condition was about one in 20,000 for those who had been fully inoculated with Pfizer’s vaccine.

But Professor Ferguson said it was possible that the condition was more common among people who had actually had Covid.

He said: ‘We actually don’t have quite as good data on what the risk of infection is for causing (myocarditis) and it probably does cause the same condition.

‘So there is likely to be a small benefit of vaccinating that age group, to the vaccine recipients themselves. 

‘But it is not clear cut enough and large enough for (the JCVI) to wholeheartedly recommend it.’

It comes after Dr David Strain, co-chair of the BMA Medical Academics, claimed youngsters aged 12 to 15 were capable of weighing up the benefits of vaccination against the small risk of serious side effects.

He claimed they should be able to overrule their parents’ wishes and get the injection if officials sign off on the plans this week. 

But Dr Strain admitted that rolling out doses to the age group would only cut transmission by 20 per cent 

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said yesterday that children would be able to get the vaccine against their parents’ wishes if it is made available for the age group.   

Dr Strain, who is also clinical lead for Covid services at the Royal Devon & Exeter NHS Foundation Trust, told LBC Radio: ‘A lot of children aged 12 have enough maturity in order to make a decision themselves, although it’s not the same for every child.

‘Doctors and nurses are trained to be able to evaluate them and deem them competent.’

‘Vaccinating children will reduce the spread of the virus in the population by about 20 per cent.’

Speaking about his own family, he said: ‘My 16-year-old has already had the vaccine; our 12-year-old, who’s actually starting school tomorrow, will be desperately keen to get the vaccine.

‘We have weighed up the evidence and fully accept there is this very small risk of myocarditis after the first jab, but actually the risk of myocarditis after getting Covid is about the same, if not slightly higher.

‘These are the factors, so I would have no hesitation at all to allow my children to have the vaccine.’

Professor Whitty is under mounting political pressure to approve jabs for 12 to 15-year-olds in England.

Downing Street fears that while daily cases never hit the prediction of 100,000 cases a day over the summer, they could spiral to these levels during the winter months if kids aren’t given vaccines. 

This would leave the country fighting a new Covid wave at the same time as a flu outbreak, putting further pressure on the NHS. 

But in its ruling on Friday, the JCVI said giving Covid vaccines to children would only have ‘marginal’ benefits to their health.

It said that the benefits did not yet outweigh the risk of potential side effects – namely heart inflammation. 

Professor Anthony Harnden, the deputy chairman of the JCVI, this morning acknowledged that the group was in the ‘uncomfortable’ position of disagreeing with the Government. 

He told Good Morning Britain: ‘It is very finely balanced. It’s marginally in favour, actually if you look at all the figures — and we have published those — in favour of vaccination.

‘But I do understand it from a parental viewpoint and I understand it from a teenager’s viewpoint.

‘This is not an easy decision. And, to a certain extent, by us coming out and saying no, if the Government say yes that does create a lot of uncomfortableness, and I fully understand that.’

He said they want to provide the data for everyone to look at and, should the chief medical officers decide healthy children in this age group should be offered a jab, they are ‘giving choice’.

He added: ‘It is up to then parents and teenagers to decide whether they go ahead or not. There isn’t a right or wrong answer to this.’

Mr Zahawi told Times Radio yesterday that children would be able to overrule their parents to get the vaccine, should the jab be recommended for the age group. 

He said: ‘What you essentially do is make sure that the clinicians discuss this with the parents, with the teenager, and if they are then deemed to be able to make a decision that is competent, then that decision will go in the favour of what the teenager decides to do.’

Mr Zahawi added that if jabbing 12 to 15-year-olds was recommended by Britain’s medical officers it was ‘absolutely’ the right thing to do.

He said that parents would be asked for consent if jabs were approved for the age group.

Medics have warned, however, that clinicians will be ‘reluctant’ to give jabs to children without their parents’ consent.

The associate professor of family law at Oxford University, Lucinda Ferguson, told The Telegraph: ‘In my view the clinician may well be reluctant to accept that because alongside that, you have now got the JCVI saying that they don’t consider it to be essentially in the medical best interests of children more generally.

She added: ‘At least at this stage wold be reluctant to accept that that consent (from a child) is good enough because of course if you treat a child without informed consent, either from them, or from a parent with parental responsibility, it is technically battery and that would be what would be concerning the clinician.’

Several SAGE members have already said they are in favour of vaccinating the age group to head off a surge in cases later this year. 

Professor John Edmunds, who sits on the powerful committee, said on Saturday: ‘In the UK now it’s difficult to say how many children have not been infected but it is probably around half of them.

‘That’s a long way to go if we allow the infection just to run through the population, that’s a lot of children who will be infected that will be a lot of disruption to schools in the coming months.’

SAGE adviser Professor Peter Openshaw also backed vaccinating the age group yesterday to head off a surge in infections. 

He told BBC Breakfast: ‘We do know the virus is circulating very widely amongst this age group, and that if we’re going to be able to get the rates down and also prevent further surges of infection perhaps later in the winter, then this is the group that needs to become immune.

‘And the best way to become immune is through vaccination, and there’s never been as much information as this in the past.’ 

He added: ‘To my mind, the public health benefit is very, very important, and we have to take the wider view that unless we do get infection rates down amongst this particular part of the population, it will be very, very hard to prevent further large recurrences (of Covid).’

War over jabs for kids: Sajid Javid orders medical experts to examine ‘broader’ case for giving vaccines to children after JCVI decides NOT to recommend Covid jabs for healthy children aged 12 to 15 because the virus poses such a low risk to them

Sajid Javid suggested that ministers plan to press on with Covid vaccinations for children despite the Government’s jab experts deciding a mass rollout was not needed.

The Health Secretary and his counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have asked their chief medical officers to examine the ‘broader’ benefits of such a scheme, after the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation’s decision.

It came as scientists and ministers clashed over whether the UK should be routinely vaccinating children against Covid. 

The JCVI has resisted growing pressure from senior ministers and scientists who urged it to follow the likes of the US, France, Spain, Italy, Canada, and the Netherlands, which are pressing ahead with the move. 

The scientists said the virus posed such a low risk to children aged between 12 and 15 that the benefit to their health of immunisation would be marginal. 

However, the JCVI has told the Government to seek advice from elsewhere to determine whether a mass rollout in schools would have wider benefits, such as keeping classrooms open and avoiding future lockdowns.  

The UK’s four chief medical officers will spend this week weighing up whether vaccinating secondary school-aged children will have a broader benefit on society. 

Mr Javid said: ‘Along with health ministers across the four nations, I have today written to the Chief Medical Officers to ask that they consider the vaccination of 12 to 15 year olds from a broader perspective, as suggested by the JCVI.

‘We will then consider the advice from the Chief Medical Officers, building on the advice from the JCVI, before making a decision shortly.’

The review will not consider any benefits adults may experience due to having children vaccinated, but will instead focus on areas outside the JCVI’s remit, such as lost education time due to Covid-related absences, either through sickness or being sent home from school.

A decision is not expected for several days. 

The JCVI did recommend the jabs for 200,000 more children with chronic heart, kidney, lung and neurological conditions in that age group. A total of 350,000 children aged 12 to 15 are now eligible for the vaccine.

The expert panel said that youngsters under 16 with severe conditions have a one in 10,000 chance of falling seriously ill with Covid compared to the one in 500,000 risk for healthy children.

It said that a very rare heart complication associated with the jabs meant the benefits of vaccination ‘only marginally’ outweighed the risks in healthy under-16s, but not enough to recommend a mass rollout. 

The JCVI said it had investigated the extremely rare events of inflammation of the heart muscle, known as myocarditis, after Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

While the condition can result in short periods of hospital observation, followed by typically swift recoveries, the JCVI has concluded the medium to long-term outcomes are still uncertain and more follow-up time is needed to get a clearer picture.

The decision comes exactly a week after the Department of Health and Social Care confirmed preparations were under way to ensure the NHS was ready to offer coronavirus jabs to all 12 to 15-year-olds in England from early September.

The department had said it wanted to be ‘ready to hit the ground running’.

On Thursday, Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said he felt parents would find it ‘deeply reassuring’ to have a choice of whether their children should have a jab or not, adding that many people hoped they would be in a position ‘of being able to roll out vaccinations for those who are under the age of 16’.

The Government has said if all 12 to 15-year-olds were to be offered a vaccine, parental or carer consent will be sought as it is in other school immunisation programmes.

Northern Ireland Health Minister Robin Swann said he agrees the issue of a wider rollout ‘warrants further consideration’.

He said: ‘It is entirely appropriate that our most senior medical advisers take forward this piece of work urgently. I look forward to seeing their considerations in the near future.’

Welsh Government Health Minister Eluned Morgan said she had asked the country’s chief medical officer ‘to provide guidance at the earliest opportunity on the clinical and wider health benefits of vaccinating this age group’, while Scottish Health Minister Humza Yousaf said he had asked for the review to be conducted ‘as soon as possible’.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said he is disappointed by the JCVI decision not to recommend jabs for all 12 to 15-year-olds.

He added that while they respect it, it could mean it is ‘more difficult during the autumn term and beyond to guard against educational disruption caused by transmission of the virus’.

He said: ‘We are therefore pleased that the door appears to have been left at least partially open as the government looks at wider issues including disruption to schools. The trouble is that time is pressing, the autumn term is upon us and we really do need a decision.’

Scottish Health Minister Humza Yousaf said: ‘I have agreed with the other three UK Health Ministers to write a letter asking the four Chief Medical Officers to consider this latest guidance and explore whether there is additional evidence to suggest it would be beneficial to offer vaccination to all 12 – 15 year olds. 

‘We have asked for this further work to be conducted as soon as possible.’ 

The Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, has asked the NHS to put preparations in place to roll out vaccinations to 12 to 15 year olds, should it be recommended by the Chief Medical Officers.

If this group is offered the vaccine, parental or carer consent will be sought, just as with other school immunisation programmes.

The vaccination programme has so far provided protection to over 48 million people over the age of 16 across the UK – including over 48 million first doses and over 43 million second doses.

The latest data from Public Health England and Cambridge University shows vaccines have saved more than 105,000 lives and prevented 143,600 hospitalisations and 24 million cases in England.

Senior ministers were said to be increasingly embittered at the failure of Government experts to authorise the rollout of Covid vaccines to under-16s ahead of the decision from the JCVI.

A Whitehall source said there was ‘palpable frustration’ among Government figures with the JCVI. Both Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Sajid Javid are said to be keen to get on with vaccinating school children.

Ministers fear the new academic year will trigger a fresh wave of the virus in classrooms. This means that without a jab, children could face more disruption to their education throughout autumn and winter. 

Last night one Whitehall source admitted: ‘There is palpable frustration that this is taking so long. The jabs have been approved for months, other countries have been doing it safely for months – we are becoming an outlier.

In the meantime, we have missed the window of opportunity in the summer and the schools are going back.’

Meanwhile, in a clear sign of the enthusiasm for the jab among teenagers, figures showed half of 16- and 17-year-olds have already had a vaccine dose in just four weeks.

Scientists and ministers were at war today over whether the UK should be routinely vaccinating children against Covid ahead of the announcement from the JCVI.

Professor Hunter said today he was against vaccinating children, although he had faith that whatever decision the JCVI comes to will have been the most informed.

He told MailOnline: ‘The issue around whether we should be vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds is whether there is enough vaccine to go around people who are vulnerable worldwide.’ 

Professor Hunter added that as the direct benefit of vaccines to children was small because Covid is a mild illness for the overwhelming majority of them.

He said he would prefer to see the doses shipped to developing nations which are struggling to get first doses to vulnerable people.

And he raised doubts about whether it was ethical to vaccinate children against a mild disease in the first place. 

‘If we are going to be vaccinating these children it has got to be in their interest, not in ours,’ he said.

‘It is one thing to say have a vaccine to protect your health, but quite another thing to persuade you to have a vaccine to protect my health. One is entirely ethical and the other is dubious.’

Professor David Livermore, a medical microbiologist at the University of East Anglia, said last week that the world will need to live with Covid for years if not decades — so having a generation of children with natural immunity would help prevent cases spiralling later down the line. 

He said natural infection could be a ‘a better first step in the lifelong co-existence’ with the virus than rolling out the jabs.

He added: ‘There is no direct reason to vaccinate children and adolescents against Covid. They are extremely unlikely to suffer severe disease if infected.

‘Rare but serious side effects have been associated with the vaccines, including blood clots and myocarditis. For older adults and the vulnerable, these are small hazards compared with those from Covid infection, and being vaccinated is obviously prudent. 

‘But for children the risk/benefit ratio is far less clear, and may reverse. The JCVI initially were against vaccinating children on this logic and have provided no clear reason for a change of view.

‘Taking these three points together I can see no good reason to vaccinate under-18s, let alone 12-year-olds.’

But the move to jab healthy kids for Covid has been backed by several experts who warn that letting the virus rip through schools could result in more disruptions to education and force lockdown restrictions to be rolled back.

Dr Clarke told MailOnline: ‘As long as the data that exists is that there is no greater harm from giving children jabs then children should get vaccinated, with the caveat that there is parental choice.

‘There have been suggestions that the Americans, the Irish, care less about their children than we do — of course they don’t. They are very sensitive about this issue as well.

‘I see no evidence that there is a problem with vaccinating children.’

He said the decision not to inoculate children before they returned to school was a ‘missed window of opportunity’ because the jabs could have reduced transmission of the virus.

Britain has been accused of being sluggish to roll out the Covid vaccine to other age groups, as its vaccination drive fell behind other countries.

US regulators approved Pfizer’s jab for 12 to 15-year-olds in May, and has already got at least one dose to 40 per cent (7million) of the age group.

The EU’s regulator also gave the age group the green light to get the jab at the end of May, with many countries quick to start rolling it out.

France began inoculating 12 to 15-year-olds in June, and more than 40 per cent (2million) have already received a first dose.

Italy started rolling out jabs to the age group from July with the aim of inoculating them before schools return. The Netherlands also began rolling out the jabs to secondary school children in July.