Analysis: Senate Republicans just got some great 2022 news

“It’s 4 a.m. in Iowa so I’m running,” Grassley tweeted, accompanied by a video of him, well, running. “I do that 6 days a week. Before I start the day I want you to know what Barbara and I have decided. I’m running for re-election—a lot more to do, for Iowa.”

That sound you hear is Senate Republicans breathing a major sigh of relief. At 88 years old (his birthday was last Friday), Grassley was regarded by strategists in both parties as a potential retirement in advance of his 2022 reelection. 

Grassley has proved to be the most reliable vote-getter in Iowa for the entirety of his four decades in the Senate. Since taking 54% in his first victory, in 1980, Grassley has never dipped below 60% of the vote in his six reelection bids. 

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In 2016, Democrats touted the candidacy of Patty Judge, but Grassley cruised to a 24-point win.

Grassley’s candidacy effectively then takes Iowa off the board as a competitive race. While Democrats will still talk up their chances with former Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the race, there’s just no evidence — recent or not recent — that Grassley is vulnerable in the least.

That’s a big change from what the contest would have looked  like if Grassley had retired. While Republicans would still have had an edge — Iowa leans GOP these days — the race would have been seriously fought and expensive for both sides. 

The Point: It’s now likely that national Republicans won’t have to spend a dime to reelect Grassley. Which means more money for offensive opportunities for Republicans in states like Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire.

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