England’s Covid outbreak SHRANK by 16% last week to below 1million, mass-testing study shows

England’s Covid outbreak shrank in size by 16 per cent last week, official figures revealed today as experts hailed the country’s ‘wall of immunity’ for keeping the virus at bay.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which analyses tens of thousands of random tests to track the spread of the infection, estimated 925,400 people were infected on any given day in the week ending November 6.

The figure equates to one in 60 people having the virus and is a significant drop on the calculation of 1,103,300 published last week, which had yet to show any downturn following the back-to-school wave despite official data showing the outbreak was naturally retreating.

And cases appear to be dropping in all age groups, most notably among 11 to 16-year-olds. But around 5 per cent of secondary school pupils were thought to have been carrying the virus in the last week, compared to roughly 7.5 per cent during half-term week.

One expert claimed the drop has been triggered ‘almost entirely by the wall of immunity, rather than behavioural changes or restrictions’, with the combination of the explosion in cases triggered by schools going back and the country’s vaccination drive credited for the drop.

And separate data published yesterday by the UK’s largest symptom-tracking study revealed cases fell by almost a fifth in the biggest weekly drop since the summer.

Meanwhile, Department for Health data yesterday showed Covid cases increased 14 per cent, marking the first rise in 10 days. But hospitalisations and deaths both fell week-on-week.  

The ONS Covid survey randomly swabs 100,000 Britons every seven days — even if they have no symptoms of the virus — to estimate its prevalence in the country.

It is seen as the gold-standard surveillance project tracking the spread of the virus by ministers.

In Wales, the number of people testing positive dropped during the most recent week. The ONS estimated 64,900 people (2.13 per cent) — one in 45 — were infected on any day.

Some 24,700 people (1.35 per cent) were infected in Northern Ireland, a rate of one in 75 people, according to the statisticians, but they noted the trend in the country was uncertain.

In Scotland, where one in 85 people were thought to have the virus (62,100, 1.18 per cent), the ONS said cases had plateaued.

Within England, cases fell in seven of the country’s nine regions. Infections increased in the East Midlands — which also has the highest rate in the country, with 2 per cent of the local population thought to be carrying the virus. Meanwhile, case levels in the West Midlands were unclear, the ONS said.

Cases were also higher than the national average in Yorkshire and the Humber (2 per cent), the West Midlands and the South West (1.9 per cent), as well as the North West (1.8 per cent).

But rates were lower in the East of England (1.7 per cent), South East (1.5 per cent), North East (1.4 per cent) and London (1.2 per cent).

Meanwhile, infection rates remained highest among children aged 11 to 16, but fell from 7.5 per cent on the week ending October 30 to 4.8 per cent on the seven days up to Noverm 6.

During the most recent seven-day spell cases also fell among almost all other age groups as well, including under-11s (3.8 per cent), those aged 25 to 34 (0.7 per cent), 35 to 49 (1.8 per cent), 50 to 69 and the over-70s (1 per cent).

But cases remain highest among young people and the trend was uncertain among 17 to 24-year-olds (1.4 per cent). 

It comes after separate figures — published daily on the Government’s Covid dashboards — revealed a further 42,408 new infections, marking a 14 per cent rise on the 37,269 cases recorded on the previous Thursday.

Cases had been in freefall since late October — believed to be due to growing immunity in children — except for one blip on November 1, when they rose by around 9 per cent.

But latest hospital data shows admissions fell 14 per cent in a week to 868, while daily Covid deaths fell nine per cent to 195. Hospitalisations and deaths — which are both lagging indicators — have been falling for six and three days in a row, respectively.

And another set of statistics, released yesterday by researchers at King’s College London, showed Britain’s daily Covid cases fell by almost a fifth in a week.

The team, which runs the country’s largest symptom-tracking study called ZOE, estimated 72,546 people were falling ill with the virus every day in the week to November 5, down from 88,592 the week before.

This marked the sharpest fall since the end of July, when there was a 22 per cent fall.

But Professor Tim Spector, who leads the study, said despite the drop, infections were still ‘high’ and levels of deaths and hospitalisations recorded daily across the UK were ‘worrying’.

He said the Kings College scientist also spotted ‘outbreaks’ of colds as the country heads into the winter, and that the vaccines had made ‘knowing the difference between the two harder than ever’.